Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

On Thursday night in Atlanta, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off in the earliest presidential general-election debate in modern history — and with the race between them a pure toss-up, the stakes are high. The minute the cameras turn off, you’re sure to hear partisans and pundits alike anointing a “winner” and “loser” based on their judgment of each candidate’s performance.

But only one judge really matters here: the American people, and we can’t truly know who won the debate until we hear from them. That’s why 538 is once again partnering with Ipsos to poll the same likely voters both before and after the debate to see how — and whether — their views on the 2024 election change. Click here for the full results of the pre-debate poll.