US seeks to balance backing Syrian people, protecting American interests: ANALYSIS
Following the downfall of the Bashar Assad regime, the Biden administration is trying to strike a careful balance -- promising to allow the Syrian people to chart their own course while also vowing to protect American interests and prevent an enduring power vacuum from taking hold in the country.
In remarks addressing Assad's ouster on Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken struck a cautiously optimistic tone, noting that the historic moment presented "considerable risks" but promising that the U.S. was already working to avoid them.
"The Syrian people have to be the ones to choose their path, their future. Senior officials from this department are fanning out through the region as we speak, working with counterparts on how the United States can help support the Syrian people as they decide their own path for the future," he said.
But in addition to backing the Syrian people, those officials are also pushing the administration's agenda, including working to gather intelligence on Austin Tice, a former U.S. Marine and freelance journalist who was kidnapped in Syria 12 years ago.
Roger Carstens, the Biden administration's top hostage negotiator, travelled to Lebanon following Assad's ouster, according to a State Department official.
A senior administration official said one of the reasons Carstens travelled to the country was to chase down an unconfirmed report that Tice was in the Syrian capital -- gathered from signals intelligence.
While the U.S. tries to turn chaos in Syria into an opportunity to gather more information about Tice, the Biden administration is also trying to prevent ISIS from using that turmoil to launch a resurgence -- something Blinken said the group would certainly attempt.
On Sunday, the U.S. military launched a series of punishing airstrikes on ISIS militants. Pentagon officials described the attacks as preemptive measures aimed at preventing the group from reorganizing in Syria and signaled additional strikes were likely.
Another concern created by the demise of the Assad regime is the stockpiles of chemical weapons it may have left in the country. Although the Obama administration cut a deal with Russia, an Assad ally, to destroy the banned munitions, that deal was not fully implemented and efforts to inspect remaining arsenals have been unsuccessful.
U.S. officials fear that stockpiles of the ingredients necessary to create these chemical weapons, if not the weapons themselves, remain in Syria and could fall into the hands of bad actors.
The Israeli military said it carried out strikes on suspected chemical weapons and missile sites in recent days, but the full picture of where these depots may be located within Syria remains hazy.
While the Biden administration celebrated the end of Assad's rule, anxiety over who will govern Syria next is palpable.
U.S. officials fear the prolonged absence of a central authority in Syria could lead to an enduring post-revolution turmoil similar to the political and humanitarian crises still playing out in Libya and Sudan.
But they also have their misgivings about the group that led the coalition of rebels that defeated Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which spawned from an affiliate of al-Qaeda and is classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has attempted to distance itself from its jihadist roots, but officials within the Biden administration have expressed skepticism -- fearing the group will revert to its old ways when in power.
In an address on Sunday, President Joe Biden signaled that the U.S. was unlikely to rethink its position toward Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the near future.
"As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions," he said.
But as Washington undergoes its own transition of power, its unclear which of the Biden administration's priorities for Syria the Trump administration will keep in place.
"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT," President-elect Donald Trump said in a statement on Saturday.
"Trump's stated goal is remaining aloof from the conflict in Syria, but many U.S. allies have acute interests at stake in Syria, and the potential of problems in Syria to metastasize is large," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official.
"There's no question in my mind that this situation is going to evolve over many, many months," he said. "And while the decisions made now are important, the consequences of most of those decisions will not be clear until we're well into the Trump administration."
