With 1 day until Iowa's Republican caucuses, here's what to know
After months of anticipation, the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses are on Monday. Republican presidential candidates have been hitting the state for months to meet with Iowans who will cast their presidential preference cards at their respective caucus locations.
This is a big year for state Republicans with a still sizable pool of candidates and a bit to prove after a tumultuous 2020 in Iowa for the Democrats, when the state party found "inconsistencies" in the reporting of the results as they came in for review -- prompting notorious confusion and delay on caucus night.
While polls continue to show former President Donald Trump has a strong hold on the state's potential caucusgoers, several other major GOP candidates have been crisscrossing Iowa to pitch their plan as an alternative to Trump.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has done the most events in Iowa so far; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley are leading in the polls among candidates who aren't Trump. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie skipped the state altogether -- instead focusing on New Hampshire -- but ultimately ended his bid last week, just days before the caucuses.
Lesser-known candidates such as businessman and faith leader Ryan Binkley and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are still sticking it out as Iowans prepare to vote.
Here's what to know about the upcoming caucuses and how candidates have worked to connect with Iowa voters.
Why are the Iowa caucuses considered a big deal and how do they work?
Iowa's caucuses, along with New Hampshire's primary, have historically received outsized attention from the public and from the news media because they offer the first look at who voters want to run in the next presidential election. Since 1972, Iowa's caucuses have been a testing ground for presidential hopefuls and an opportunity for leading candidates to inject a surge of momentum into their campaigns.
The caucuses, which start at 7 p.m. CST on Monday, require voters to gather at the location assigned to the precinct in which they live, divvying Iowans up among the more than 1,600 precincts across the state's 99 counties.
During a caucus, representatives -- often predetermined volunteer precinct captains -- for each candidate, if not a campaign staffer or candidate themselves, pitch their candidates in hopes of winning over their fellow caucusgoers. From there, voters have the opportunity to debate their options and potentially persuade their peers.
This public, communal, discussive nature of caucuses is what sets them apart from a typical primary where voters can arrive to a polling location at any time throughout the day, privately cast their secret ballot and then leave.
Finally, caucusgoers write down a name -- any name -- on a piece of paper to be collected and counted in view of attendees. Soon after, a winner and distribution of delegates is announced and results are reported electronically to the Republican Party of Iowa to verify the results.
Unlike Iowa's Democratic caucuses where a given candidate must have the support of at least 15% of attendees in the room to remain viable, the first collection of ballots at a Republican caucus is final.
The presidential preference contest can take 30 minutes to an hour, depending on how many people show up or what happens in the room.
Caucus rules dictate that all participants: be a resident of Iowa, be 18 years old by the general election in November, be a registered Republican and have valid voter ID, which includes an Iowa voter identification card, Iowa driver's license, Iowa non-operator ID, U.S. military ID or veteran ID, a U.S. passport or a tribal ID. If registering on caucus night, voters must bring a valid ID and proof of address.
Democrats will still hold an in-person caucus to conduct party business on Monday, but no one will be casting presidential preference cards. The national party is prioritizing other states in its primary calendar this year, like South Carolina, arguing that Iowa isn't representative of its voters or the country.
What have GOP presidential candidates done around Iowa?
Donald Trump
Polls show Trump continues to have a strong lead over the other candidates. While nothing is guaranteed, and many voters are indeed shopping their options, he has remained the front-runner.
Beyond name recognition and, of course, being a former president, Trump has an eight-year advantage over his competition. He has already done this twice, and won once (in 2020, and he put up a fight in 2016, too).
For Trump, it may not be a matter of garnering support but making sure those voters turn out and that their caucus captains know how to win others over.
"The big thing, and I say it at every speech -- don't sit out on me. Even if you think we're winning by a lot, it doesn't matter," Trump told supporters on Sunday. "We have to get out and vote. And we're really setting the table for November by doing that, because we're in very good shape."
Trump has so far made 35 campaign stops over 21 days. His team has hosted "Commit to Caucus" events, holding several with Trump himself, and others with surrogates.
According to 538's latest Iowa polling average, Trump has the lead with about 51%.
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis was the only candidate to ring in the new year in Iowa after attending an event hosted by the Never Back Down PAC on New Year's Eve and then making an appearance at a Citrus Bowl watch party on New Year's Day alongside his wife, Casey DeSantis.
The Florida governor was endorsed by beloved (among Iowa Republicans) Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vanderplaats in November.
On Dec. 2, he completed the "full Grassley," visiting all 99 counties in the state -- a reference to Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley's efforts to visit them all every year.
DeSantis and Never Back Down, in particular, have a solid presence in the state helped by major door-knocking and mailer efforts and (recently pulled) ads.
DeSantis is polling at about 16%, according to 538's latest Iowa average.
DeSantis has so far appeared at 169 events in the state, across 61 days, since the start of his campaign in May.
Nikki Haley
Haley has really been splitting her time on the campaign trail, spending time across several early states including New Hampshire and South Carolina, rather than taking on Iowa head-on. She has held 82 events in Iowa over 46 days so far -- far fewer than DeSantis and Ramaswamy, while still polling ahead of them both, according to 538. She is currently at about 17%, narrowly ahead of DeSantis.
Haley has spent the most on January Iowa ads so far, according to tracking from AdImpact and as reported by NBC.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ramaswamy's campaign took a grassroots approach with the help of former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, who chaired the Iowa campaigns of 2012 and 2016 caucus winners Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz and is now hoping to win a third.
The entrepreneur and commentator has invested most of his time -- and in recent weeks, just about all of it -- in Iowa, crisscrossing the state to meet with voters face-to-face in hopes of "delivering a surprise result" due to first-time caucusgoers including young people and newly turned Republicans.
He recently celebrated the completion of his "Double Grassley" tour -- meaning he has visited all 99 counties at least twice. He has had 326 events in Iowa as of Sunday morning, campaigning there for 89 days -- the most of any of his competitors by far.
And after opening a campaign headquarters in Des Moines, door-knocking and phone-banking have ramped up in addition to virtual and in-person voter outreach.
Ramaswamy hasn't secured any major endorsement, but was endorsed earlier this month by controversial former Rep. Steve King, who had said they see eye-to-eye on opposing the use of eminent domain to push carbon capture pipelines in the state.
Ramaswamy halted TV ad spending in December, telling ABC News his team's data showed it was unjustified given the projected return on investment.
According to 538's latest Iowa polling averages, Ramaswamy is trailing at about 6.6%.
Asa Hutchinson
As reported by Axios, "Asa's Normal Express" launched in Des Moines in early January. It marked a push by the Hutchinson campaign to convince Iowa voters that there's an alternative to Trump.
"People are looking for normal after the chaos that we've had … I offer normal. I'm sort of building on that," Hutchinson told Axios.
538's latest polling averages place him at 0.4% in Iowa. He has done 97 events in Iowa across 63 days this cycle.
Ryan Binkley
Binkley, a Texas pastor, told ABC News he's committed to staying in the race through the caucuses. Though he established a presence in Iowa early on in the race, Binkley acknowledged to ABC News in October that a lack of name recognition remains a hurdle.
He was the first candidate to complete the "full Grassley" and celebrated 200 events earlier in January. He does not yet qualify to be tracked by 538's polling average.
ABC News' Lalee Ibssa and Soo Rin Kim contributed to this report.
