Race to the center: How NY suburbs are showcasing candidates trying to 'out-moderate' each other
ROCKLAND COUNTY, NEW YORK -- In New York's 17th Congressional District, the candidates here insist they're centrists. Just don't believe the lies from the other side.
GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who first won his seat in 2022 by fewer than 2,000 votes, said he wouldn't vote for a federal abortion ban, supports organized labor and opposes cuts to entitlement programs, all while keeping former President Donald Trump at arm's length. Mondaire Jones, the former Democratic congressman he's running against, supposedly detests Israel, wants to cut funding to cops and is doing the bidding of the progressive "squad," according to Lawler.
In Jones' telling, Lawler can't be trusted on abortion, wants to raise the retirement age and is a pawn of hardliners like Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Jones, meanwhile, said he supports additional funding for law enforcement and backs Israel, going so far as to endorse a victorious primary challenger to a squad member who had cast conspiracy theories about Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack.
Such is political life in this suburban district in New York's Hudson Valley, one of the country's most competitive and a key for each side in the quest for House control. At a time when swing voters are recoiling at the party's national reputations, the candidates here are working hard to convince voters they're anything but the caricatures they hear from the other side, and the politics are anything but local.
"They're both trying to out-moderate each other, which is interesting because you so seldom see a competition for the middle," New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish told ABC News. "I think it's what most voters in this district, and not in this district, actually want."
A flood of advertising
The messages are being backed by tens of millions of dollars in spending from each side, fueling an avalanche of television, digital and mail advertising that voters here told ABC News caught them off guard.
Some areas in this race have not always been competitive and were formerly represented by Democrats like Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey, senior lawmakers who never sweated serious competition in their reelection bids in their districts as they were drawn at the time.
Now, voters can barely open their mailbox, search on YouTube or turn on their televisions without being bombarded by messaging from the campaigns.
That's on top of a relentless campaign schedule that has seemingly left barely any residents here unaware of who their candidates are.
At a Halloween-themed event at Strawtown Elementary School in West Nyack Friday, waves of children came running up to Lawler asking for selfies and if he's "really Mike Lawler," apparently trying to figure out if he was actually Lawler or dressed up as him -- but certainly aware at a young age who he was, regardless of their inability to vote for him.
The reception was typical, Lawler told ABC News, mainly attributing the recognition to YouTube ads.
And at a Halloween parade in Nyack, a liberal neighborhood of Rockland County, Jones was greeted with cheers as he walked through the town. Lawler was greeted with a smattering of fist bumps as he walked with his wife and daughter, as well as one woman giving him two thumbs down.
Conversations with over two dozen district residents showed that voters largely believed that their chosen candidate would be a reasonable actor in Congress and stand up to the other side.
"He's always honest, and he's done everything to show that he supports the community, supports law enforcement," Jason Rudnitsky, a detective for the New York Police Department, said of Lawler. "Mondaire Jones has done things to prove that he stands with [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] and the squad, and I don't believe in what they stand for. And for that reason, I'm voting against them."
"I think at this point we really need to have a Democratic Congress, especially in the event that Trump wins the election, we need to have a counterbalance against him, and I think Mondaire Jones is going to do a better job of representing our district overall," added Elias Kahn, a Westchester County voter who works for a legal research company.
Even on policy, voters appeared focused on national issues. Only one voter in the several conversations and events ABC News participated in brought up local school taxes. Instead, concerns mostly regarded immigration (the southern border is about 2,000 miles away by car) and abortion (state law currently protects abortion rights, but a ballot initiative is seeking to formally add it to the state constitution).
A tough presidential race colors the House contest
The strategies of each candidate to nationalize the race make perfect sense.
Trump lost this district by 10 points in 2020, meaning Lawler needs notable enough separation from his party leader to remain viable and repeat what would likely be another narrow win.
But the district is not fertile ground for progressive policies, riddled with concerns over crime and inflation but also abortion and democracy, meaning Jones must assert his pragmatism and distance himself from erstwhile allies and stances, including past comments about defunding the police -- remarks he says were taken out of context.
Their lawn signs tell the story -- Jones' say he's a "Democrat for Congress." Lawler's simply say he's running for Congress, with some dubbing him "Rockland's own."
Lawler's allies are confident the incumbent has done sufficient work to carve out a unique enough identity, thanks to a combination of his on-the-ground campaigning, a flood of advertising and a tenure that now includes two years in the House and more in other local positions.
"Everybody knows who Mike Lawler is now, and they have an impression of him," said New York GOP strategist William O'Reilly. "He knows how campaigns work, and he knows you have to bust your ass to get anywhere in them."
When asked how confident he was that his version of Lawler was sinking in, Jones said he thinks "there are people who are learning still that Mike Lawler would be a reliable vote" for Trump's priorities.
"We are working so hard to make sure people learn that lesson in the next 10 days who have not already learned that lesson. Every day, the conversations get better," Jones told ABC News Saturday.
To be certain, the district will still be largely influenced by the presidential race -- Lawler has to run ahead of Trump, while Jones has to keep every voter for Vice President Kamala Harris in the fold, and anything more than Trump's 10-point loss in 2020 could make the odds insurmountable for Republicans down ballot.
"Obviously, the closer it is, the easier it is to run the margin up," Lawler told ABC News.
Still, voters and both candidates predicted a tight presidential contest here, making the war over perception key to the House contenders' closing arguments. And while conversations with district voters did not reveal many who planned to split their tickets for Harris and Lawler -- a positive sign for Jones -- some Democrats did say they were worried that people they know would do so.
"I am a Democrat, but I'm not opposed to voting for a Republican if they have certain values that I'm looking for," said Moshe Amsel, a lawyer from Suffern who is voting for Harris but is still sifting through information about Lawler and Jones before deciding who to back.
No reprieve until it's all done
In reality, the truth about the candidates lies in the middle of their battling depictions of each other.
Lawler has said he'll support Trump and Johnson and voted against Democratic messaging bills that would do things like protect abortion access and entitlement programs, though he's also received praise from President Joe Biden and advised Trump to stop discussing 2020 election conspiracies. Jones ran as a progressive in his successful 2020 campaign, but he voted in Congress for bills that added funding for law enforcement and Israel.
But any edge the candidates can grab is key here -- and for Congress overall.
Reliable public polling has been scant, but the surveys that have been released show a highly competitive House race. Democrats and Republicans desperately need to flip or hold onto districts like Lawler's if they are to control the House come 2025. With a winnowing number of competitive districts in play across the country, seats like this are simply must-win, and the parties are proving it with their checkbooks.
Voters here described feeling overwhelmed by all the attention on the race, lamenting the flood of advertising and wondering how they got added to so many text blasts from each party.
They likely won't find any reprieve until Nov. 6.
"There's no ignoring the fact that it's one of the most competitive races in the country. And then there's a really intense focus by donors, the groups, the party apparatuses on both sides of the aisle," Reinish said. "It's very clear that this district is the epicenter of the battle for the House and the location of very fierce activity."
