How initial US support for aiding Ukraine has come to a standstill 2 years later
Two years ago, President Joe Biden pledged unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine as Russia fired off the first missiles in its brutal invasion.
"In the contest between democracy and autocracy, between sovereignty and subjugation, make no mistake: Freedom will prevail," Biden said from the White House as he announced sanctions against Russia, the deployment of additional U.S. troops to Germany and humanitarian relief for Ukraine.
Since then, he has said Ukraine would have American backing "as long as it takes."
But now, as the conflict enters its third year, additional aid to Ukraine is trapped in a political fight in Washington and public support for assisting Kyiv in the war appears to be waning.
Some 5,000 miles away, Vladimir Putin's forces are making gains as the Ukraine's military struggles with diminishing weapon stockpiles.
"I think Putin feels extraordinarily confident heading into the third year of the war in Ukraine," Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a director at the Center for a New American Security and former intelligence officer, told ABC News. "He sees that he has weathered Ukraine's counteroffensive and now he sees the fatigue, particularly in the United States, about our willingness to support Ukraine, and I think he very much feels emboldened. I think he thinks that things are headed in Russia's direction."
How we got here
The political mood in Washington now seems far removed from when, two months into the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy got a hero's welcome as he made an emotional plea to Congress for more help. His virtual address included references to U.S. tragedies like 9/11 and Pearl Harbor, as well as a video capturing the atrocities unfolding at the hands of Russian troops. Some lawmakers listening were moved to tears, amid multiple standing ovations.
That year, the U.S. passed multiple packages that included aid to Ukraine with strong bipartisan support. According to the White House, Congress to date has voted for more than $110 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine and other national security needs.
But that money is running dry, and U.S. officials are warning Ukraine could face a potentially catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses by spring if an additional aid bill isn't passed.
"The coalition behind Ukraine stayed strong and really didn't begin to erode in a tangible way until this past summer," said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as a national security official in the Obama administration.
Kupchan believes support for Ukraine in the U.S. dropped around that time because of perceptions the war was dragging on, Ukraine's failed counteroffensive and the ramping-up of the 2024 election season.
ABC News polling found the share of Americans who said the U.S. was doing too much to support Ukraine rose from 14% in April 2022 to 41% in September 2023.
President Biden requested an additional $60 billion in aid for Ukraine that fall. Complicating the matter further, the money then got tied to aid for Israel in its fight against Hamas and later to immigration changes due to Republican demands for greater border restrictions.
Zelenskyy visited Washington again in December in a last-minute push to secure aid before the end of the year, but it was much more subdued than previous trips. Unlike the year prior, Zelenskyy did not address a joint session of Congress and instead met with leaders behind closed doors.
After months of political back-and-forth, the Democrat-controlled Senate passed a stand-alone foreign aid bill on Feb. 12 that included money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. But it has not been taken up by the Republican-led House.
Former President Donald Trump, the party's presumptive nominee, is opposed to the Senate foreign aid bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson, leading a caucus that includes a group of hardline conservatives who've embraced Trump's "America First" brand of isolationism, has said he won't be "jammed" into backing the measure and that the priority should be on addressing challenges at home.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, is making the case that aiding Ukraine is in America's national security interest, that U.S. aid is being used to degrade the Russian military without putting American troops at risk. He told CNN earlier this month: “Every argument against this is wrong. Every single one of them."
What happens next?
President Biden, in brief remarks recognizing the war's two-year anniversary, once again called on the House to return from its two-week recess and pass Ukraine aid.
"They have to get back and get this done," he said. "Because failure to support Ukraine in this critical moment will never be forgotten in history. It will be measured and it will have an impact for decades to come.”
Experts who spoke with ABC News were in agreement that if a Ukraine aid package made it to the House floor, it would likely pass. While the coalition of GOP hard-liners opposed to any further funding has grown, it hasn't eclipsed the broad bipartisan support for helping Ukraine against Russia.
If Congress doesn't act, the options for the Biden administration are severely limited, experts said.
"I don't really think there's a plan B," said Kendall-Taylor.
Other options to try to punish Russia could be more sanctions (though they've yet to cripple Putin's ability to continue the invasion) or to use frozen Russian assets in western banks to fund Ukraine (but there are questions as to the legality of such a plan). Europe could also try to compensate for the loss of American assistance, but it would be unlikely they could entirely fill in the gap.
The White House has declined to get into hypothetical options. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters earlier this month there is no "magic solution" if there is no congressional funding.
Meanwhile, the current stalemate is already having an impact on the battlefield. Last week, Russian forces were able to push Ukrainian troops out of a key city.
"The Russian takeover of Avdiivka is a little microcosm of what happens if the aid doesn't continue," said Kendall-Taylor.
