What we heard about the economy, immigration and foreign policy at the RNC
Heading into any presidential election, each party has a built-in advantage with voters on different issues. That's reflected on the campaign trail, as candidates highlight those issues in ways they hope will both galvanize their base and appeal to new voters. What better time to showcase those issues than the quadrennial nominating conventions for president and vice president? In light of last week's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, we decided to evaluate just how, and how much, the GOP is talking about the issues voters give them high marks on.
This year, voters trust Republicans and former President Donald Trump on the economy, immigration and foreign policy, while voters trust Democrats and President Joe Biden more on abortion and reproductive rights, health care, protecting democracy and uniting the country, according to a CNN/SSRS poll from this month. The convention seemed to lean into this by making each of these topics a theme on the first three nights, with speeches loosely organized around Trump's platform of making America "wealthy," "safe," and "strong," respectively. (The fourth night was a take on Trump's classic slogan, "Make America Great Once Again," and dominated by Trump's nearly hour-and-a-half long, wide-ranging speech.) To assess Republicans' messaging on these key issues, we looked at RNC speakers during the 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. timeslot, when major speakers are featured.
The Economy
Voters have disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy since shortly after he took office, right after the economy had cratered because of the COVID-19 pandemic and as a rocky road to recovery was beginning. Even despite positive economic indicators in recent months, Biden and Democrats are at a disadvantage as voters remain pessimistic about the state of the economy. As we found when we spoke to voters in Duval County, Florida, worries particularly about the cost of living, especially for necessities like housing, have dampened enthusiasm even among previous Biden voters.
In fact, voters' preference for Republicans over Democrats on economic matters was the highest it's ever been since the 1980s, per an October 2023 Gallup survey. And, of course, Trump has campaigned as a successful businessman, a perception that helped him in 2016 and might give him an advantage on the economy in voters' minds. With Democrats playing defense on the economy, issues of inflation and high costs have proved a ripe target for Republican attacks.
Many speeches during the convention touched on inflation, even if they were aimed at other topics. In all, at least 42 speakers out of around 95 over the first three nights of the convention used the word "inflation" or mentioned high prices, and most speeches devoted at least a sentence to it.
That was perhaps most true on Monday, the first night of the conference, for which the theme was "Make America Wealthy Again." The idea that families are burdened by high prices was a constant refrain. Headliners like Sen. Katie Britt and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin discussed high mortgage rates and grocery and gas costs, which Youngkin pinned on the "silent thief of inflation unleashed by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris."
Another lawmaker, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, shared his own experiences. "Growing up poor, I know the pain of high food prices, high energy prices and housing costs," Donalds said. "I remember as a kid, my mom yelling at me, 'Turn off that light. You don't pay the bill.' We know there's a bunch of kids in America today who are hearing that from their parents."
Meanwhile, voices outside of politics — ranging from Amber Rose, a model and TV personality most famous as a former girlfriend of rapper Ye, to Sara Workman, a single mother from Arizona — also called attention to high prices during Biden's presidency, and connected higher prices to a sense of American decline. "Every time I fill up my gas tank, go to the grocery store and try to pay the bills, I think, 'Who doesn't miss the Trump days?'" Workman said, adding that Biden's economic and other policies were "destroying the American spirit."
The final and de facto keynote speaker of Monday night was Sean O'Brien, the president of the Teamsters Union, and some Republican delegates might have worried they had wandered into the wrong building for his speech. O'Brien veered sharply from traditional Republican orthodoxy and represented a demographic that was once solidly in the Democratic camp: unions. "While the stock market booms, housing prices hit record highs, and corporate salaries skyrocket. But the income of everyday Americans are shrinking in the face of inflation," O'Brien said. "We need legal protections that make it safer for workers to get a contract. We must stop corporations from abandoning local communities to inflate their bottom line."
O'Brien's message and prominent speaking slot emphasized the unconventional balance the party has struck in appealing to "workers" while Trump continues to advocate for more traditionally conservative pro-business policies like corporate tax cuts.
This pro-worker economic message was often combined with another, more traditionally Republican theme: The ability to work one's way up the economic ladder. It's a message that has proved appealing to working-class voters and non-college graduates, who have become an increasingly important part of the Trump-era GOP base.
On Monday night, Sen. Tim Scott and North Carolina Lt. Gov. and gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson each shared their own pick-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps success stories of overcoming poverty. And this type of narrative, of course, is likely to keep coming up on the campaign trail, as Trump's own running mate, Sen. JD Vance, rose to prominence on the basis of his memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," documenting his family's struggles with poverty, unemployment and substance abuse.
Vance, who accepted the vice presidential nomination on Wednesday night, reached back to his grandparents' generation to tell his life story. "[T]here is still so much talent and grit in the American heartland. There really is," he said. "But for these places to thrive, my friends, we need a leader who fights for the people who built this country. We need a leader who is not in the pocket of big business, but answers to the working man, union and non-union alike."
For his part, Trump said in his Thursday acceptance speech that "Inflation has wiped out the life savings of our citizens, and forced the middle class into a state of depression and despair." He said would drive down prices and "make America affordable again" on day one, including by increasing oil drilling and cutting back government spending. (It's worth noting that the oil permits under the Biden administration have outpaced those under Trump's.) He also touted trade deals and increased tariffs to incentivize American manufacturing, and a proposal to end taxing tips.
Of course, Trump's account of his own economic record is often exaggerated, and many of his economic policy proposals aren't particularly detailed, while some have drawn criticism from experts. But the focus of convention speeches is to get the party's campaign message to voters, not hold a policy symposium, and the message overall was clear and consistent: Americans are hurting because America is expensive.
Immigration
The issue where Trump may have the biggest advantage among voters is immigration, with half of voters in the CNN/SRSS poll saying they trust Trump more, while only 28 percent say they trust Biden more, a 22-percent gap that was larger than on any other issue area. Of course, Trump launched his presidential career in 2015 on an anti-immigration stance, particularly his promise to build a border wall to stop immigration from Mexico, and it has remained an integral part of his message since.
While some of the strictest anti-immigration policies Trump took as president and has touted on the campaign trail are unpopular, polling has suggested that they've also gained adherents over time, as Trump has brought the Republican Party more in line with his vision on the issue.
Upon taking office, Biden reversed a number of Trump's most controversial policies, and news coverage of immigration surged from his earliest days in office. During the Biden administration, U.S. Border Security has taken about 2 million people per year into custody, the highest in history, while it has also deported a record number of immigrants, largely because of these high numbers of crossings. All of this has helped make the idea of a border crisis top of mind for voters this cycle. Their continued worries about immigration, especially among Republican voters, may push more of them in Trump's direction too, as they largely disapprove of Biden's handling of the issue.
The second night of the RNC was titled "Make America Safe Once Again," and the overarching theme of the night was that immigration was out of control and that undocumented immigrants are streaming through the border from Mexico. Speakers contrasted Trump’s tough-on-immigration policy stances with the idea that Democrats are inappropriately directing resources or granting asylum to illegal immigrants, with Sen. Tom Cotton saying Trump would “stop migrant welfare once again” and that Trump "ended bogus asylum claims” during his presidency.
Overall, at least 48 speakers mentioned immigration in the first three nights of the convention, and at least 10 used the words "illegal aliens," although other speakers referred to "illegal immigrants." Importantly, many speakers also mentioned Vice President Kamala Harris's role in immigration policy, referring to her as the "border czar." (She was charged with coordinating efforts to address the "root causes" of immigration to the U.S.) They were perhaps anticipating that Trump may be running against her — now a likely outcome in light of Biden's announcement Sunday that he will not run for reelection.
Going further, Republicans have consistently drawn connections between immigration rates and both violent crime and the drug overdose crisis, tying fentanyl to illegal border crossings. These claims have routinely been exaggerated, as almost all fentanyl smuggling is done by U.S. citizens, and immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born Americans. But these claims were repeated in speech after speech at the RNC.
Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake said "Democrats have handed over control of my state, Arizona's border, to the drug cartels," while several speakers highlighted a couple of high-profile crimes that were committed by illegal immigrants, like the murder of 22-year-old Georgia nursing student Laken Riley in February. "Every day, Americans are dying. Murder, assault, rapes by illegal immigrants that the Democrats have released," Sen. Ted Cruz said, calling immigration a "literal invasion."
In his speech, Trump promised to close the border and finish building the wall. He also called immigration an invasion, claimed it was killing hundreds of thousands of people a year, and that immigrants are pouring into American cities. (Fact checks have found these claims to be false or exaggerated.) He also repeated false claims that immigrants were coming from prisons and insane asylums.
Trump, along with other speakers, also tried to tie immigration to the economy, suggesting that illegal immigration was a factor behind the financial hardships faced by many working-class and lower-income families. "By the way, do you know who's taking the jobs, the jobs that are being created?" he asked the crowd about 40 minutes into the speech. "107 percent of those jobs are taken by illegal aliens." He said this was particularly hurting Black, Hispanic and union workers.
Foreign policy
Polls show that voters are unhappy and concerned about U.S. involvement in ongoing wars abroad. Nearly 40 percent of voters named foreign policy in an open-ended question about what five issues they thought were most important in an AP/NORC poll from January, up from only 18 percent a year earlier. Disagreements about Israel-Hamas, specifically, have driven young-voter protests against Biden and divisions among Democrats, and Republican speakers have worked to try to woo those displeased with the president.
"I will end every single international crisis that the current administration has created," Trump said in his speech on Thursday, claiming that both Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war "would never have happened" if he was president. It's a specious claim of course, but one that featured prominently throughout the RNC.
Wednesday night's theme was "Make America Strong Once Again," and many speeches homed in on Iran and China as America's biggest threats (in addition to continuing the theme of strengthening border security). Speakers who addressed foreign policy included several veterans and gold star family members and Vance, who accepted the vice presidential nomination in the evening's final speech.
The night centered on the idea that Trump had made America strong and kept our foreign adversaries at bay, while the Biden administration had weakened the U.S.'s standing around the world. "I'm not here to sugarcoat it," said veteran and Florida Rep. Brian Mast. "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have weakened our armed forces and slashed the military budget like they slashed the family budget, and distracted our troops with millions of hours with so-called extremism training and adherence to left-wing political ideology."
But it was arguably Nikki Haley's speech on Tuesday that most highlighted the campaign's approach to foreign policy: Focusing heavily on criticisms of Biden's policies, the former U.N. ambassador leaned into the traditional Republican message that Democrats are weak and Republicans are strong on foreign policy, working to reinforce the claim that Trump would end global turmoil by being a stronger leader.
Haley, the last and arguably most successful challenger to Trump in this cycle's GOP primary, has vocally clashed with Trump on foreign policy in the past. For example, the more hawkish Haley has defended the U.S.'s aid to and support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. In contrast, Trump has long been skeptical of aid to Ukraine and other foreign countries, and that's even more true of some Trump-aligned isolationist Republicans like Vance. While most Americans share Haley's stance, support for continued Ukraine aid has waned especially among Republican voters, and nearly held up a bill to fund the government last year.
But during her RNC speech, Haley gave her full endorsement to the former president, directly addressing those who don't agree with Trump on every issue: "For the sake of our nation, we have to go with Donald Trump." Haley laid responsibility for the global turmoil that Americans are so concerned about at Biden's feet. "Think about it. When Barack Obama was president, Vladimir Putin invaded Crimea. With Joe Biden as president, Putin invaded all of Ukraine," she said. "When Donald Trump was president, Putin did nothing …. No invasion, no wars. That was no accident. Putin didn't attack Ukraine because he knew Donald Trump. A strong president doesn't start wars, a strong president prevents wars."
Similarly, she blamed the crisis in Israel and Palestine on the Biden administration and criticized Biden's "surrender" in Afghanistan, saying conflicts under the administration have strengthened Iran in the region, in contrast to Trump's sanctions against Iran.
In all, at least 31 speakers in the first three nights of the RNC mentioned foreign policy or foreign wars, with Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, Iran and China being among the top topics. At least another six speakers mentioned the withdrawal from Afghanistan under Biden in August 2021. At least two speakers, including North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, spoke about energy independence as a key to national security as well — tying back to themes of strengthening the economy.
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Though Trump's long, winding acceptance speech ended the Republican National Convention on a rambling and disjointed note, the Republican Party largely maintained message discipline throughout the event, reinforcing the same themes over and over and tying them to the issues that they already have an advantage on among voters. Many of these issues also bled into each other: Speakers tied immigration to the economy by repeating the (mostly disproven) notion that immigrants take American jobs and threaten national safety, and that Biden's economy has made America weaker in comparison to other countries. Overall, the topics helped paint a picture of how the party line on key issues has evolved in Trump's Republican Party, as his "America First" slogan has come to represent a message encompassing the former president's appeal to American workers, calls to limit immigration and isolationist-leaning foreign policy.
