Harris leads Trump overall but not on handling of the economy: POLL
Vice President Kamala Harris heads into her nominating convention this week leading former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, bolstered by vast improvements over President Joe Biden in enthusiasm and perceived readiness for the job and sharply better support among key groups including swing-voting independents, according to a new latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.
Yet Trump retains the upper hand on the two top-cited election issues in the poll -- the overall economy and inflation -- and also leads on a third -- immigration -- keeping the race a closely contested one.
Among all adults -- relevant since there's plenty of time to register -- Harris and Gov. Tim Walz lead Trump and Sen. JD Vance by 50%-45%. Among those now registered to vote, it's 49%-45%, a slight Harris advantage given sampling tolerances. And Harris has a 6-point lead among likely voters, 51%-45%.
Roughly echoing these results, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, also finds that more people see Harris as qualified for the job, 53%, than say the same about Trump, 47%.
In a five-way matchup, the poll finds Harris/Walz and Trump/Vance at 47%-44% among the general public and registered voters alike, and 49%-45% among likely voters. None of these is a statistically significant difference, suggesting the Democrats would prefer a two-way race.
That said, among all adults, support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (and his running mate Nicole Shanahan) is down to 5%, from a peak of 12% in April. Cornel West/Melina Abdullah have 1%, as does Jill Stein of the Green Party.
These candidates' ballot access is to be determined; per ABC News estimates, Kennedy currently is on the ballot in 21 states, Stein in 20 and West in eight.
Candidate attributes
Underlying shifts from July are dramatic, particularly in views of some candidate attributes. There also are sharp increases in Democrats' satisfaction with the presidential matchup and enthusiasm for their candidate.
Among all adults, Harris leads on two measures on which Biden lagged badly. Americans by a wide 56%-26% pick her over Trump as having the physical health to serve effectively as president, reversing Trump's 31-point lead over Biden on this attribute last month. And Harris leads Trump by 9 percentage points in being seen as having the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively, erasing a 30-point Trump lead over Biden on this measure.
Harris also leads Trump by 15 points on honesty and trustworthiness and by 6 points in better-representing people's personal values, both roughly matching Biden's position before he left the race. And she leads Trump by 7 points in empathy -- understanding the problems of people like you -- an important gauge on which Biden and Trump were essentially even in July.
There's another characteristic particular to Harris: Thirty-eight percent of Americans say that having a woman serve as president would be a good thing for the country, far more than the 14% who see it as a bad thing. The rest, 47%, say it makes no difference. (Forty percent of women call a woman president a good thing, as do 35% of men.)
Strength/enthusiasm
In another sharp change, 60% of Harris' backers support her strongly, matching Trump's strong support and compared with just 34% strong support for Biden last month.
Further, 50% overall say they'd be enthusiastic or satisfied if Harris were elected, compared with 36% who said that about Biden in early 2023, even before concerns about his cognitive age grew. Just among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, enthusiasm or satisfaction with Harris as their candidate is 19 points higher than Biden's at that time, at 91% versus 72%.
Forty-five percent overall say they'd be enthusiastic or satisfied with a Trump victory, about the same as in early 2023 (43%). It's 85% among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, up 6 points.
To be sure, fewer than half of Americans, 44%, are satisfied with a Harris-Trump matchup, with 55% dissatisfied. But that's sharply improved from views on a Biden-Trump race, with which just 28% were satisfied, 71% dissatisfied, last month.
It's also the case that Harris' choice of Walz as her running mate has been better received than Trump's selection of Vance, as reported Friday.
Key issues
At the same time, Trump leads Harris by 9 points in trust to handle the economy and inflation alike, roughly maintaining his position on these issues against Biden last month. More than 85% of adults rate both of these as highly important in their vote for president, tops among 11 issues tested.
Trump also leads Harris, by 10 points, in trust to handle the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, versus a 14-point Trump lead in July. But other issues surpass immigration in importance, including health care, on which Harris leads Trump by 7 points; protecting American democracy, Harris +6; and crime and safety, on which they're close.
Notably, the gap on crime and safety has narrowed from a Trump lead, +7 points, in July, to Trump +3 points now, not a significant gap. And Harris leads by 5 points in trust to handle gun violence, compared with a virtual tie for Biden (+1) against Trump in July. Both shifts may reflect Harris' credentials as a former prosecutor.
Harris also leads, by 5 points, in trust to handle appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court. Among items lower on the importance list, she leads Trump by 12 points in trust to handle abortion and 14 points to handle race relations, while he's +5 points on handling the Israel/Hamas war (down from +9 against Biden).
Candidate influence
While Trump leads in trust to handle the economy and immigration, most people give Harris at least somewhat of a pass on the Biden administration's policies on both issues. The public by about a 2-1 margin, 64%-33%, thinks Harris had limited influence on Biden's economic policies, and by 57%-39% says the same about her influence on immigration policies.
Economic views matter, given the issue's importance. With 72% of Americans rating the economy negatively, Trump is sure to seek to pin blame on Harris, and she to try to avoid it. Currently, he leads by 61%-33% among those who rate the economy negatively; she, by 89%-8% among those who rate it positively. Wednesday's new inflation figure, a low since early 2021, may offer help to Harris, but prices and interest rates still have risen sharply on the Biden/Harris watch, and recession fears are afoot.
Trump may face more of a challenge on the abortion issue. Although fewer rate it as highly important, it's also the case that Americans by 56%-39% think Trump had substantial influence in bringing about the U.S. Supreme Court decision eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion -- a decision the public opposes by 62%-35%.
Supporters of the abortion ruling support Trump by 81%-13%, but the majority that opposes it supports Harris, by 72%-25%. Indeed, among people who think Trump had a larger role in bringing about the abortion ruling, Harris leads, 69%-28%. Among those who think Trump had less influence, that flips to a 73%-22% Trump lead.
Vote-preference gaps based on views of Harris' influence on economic and immigration policy are far less pronounced, and run in the opposite direction. She does 10 points better with people who think she's had more influence on economic policy, and 9 points better among those who think she had more influence on immigration policy, both compared with those who think she's had less influence.
Vote groups
Some of the changes among groups from Biden to Harris are striking. Among them:
- Independents went from +4 points for Trump in July to +11 Harris now, a 15-point swing. Classic swing voters, independents have gone with the winner in nine of the last 12 presidential elections, all but those in 2012, 2004 and 1976.
- People younger than age 40 have moved from +2 Biden in July to +20 for Harris now, an 18-point swing.
- Women age 18-29 split about evenly (Trump +2) in July; now they favor Harris by 23 points, a 25-point swing in this group. It's almost as big, an 18-point swing to Harris, among women age 30 to 49. Harris also has improved from Biden's score among men age 18-29, from Biden +1 in July to Harris +14 now, a 13-point swing.
- Support from Black people has swung by 12 points in Harris' direction, from +60 for Biden in July to +72 for Harris now. Her gain is about equal among Black men and Black women alike. (Harris is a Black and South Asian person. The sample size of Asians in this survey is too small for a vote-preference estimate, but a combination of the last two surveys with a Harris-Trump matchup, the first done before Biden withdrew, finds Harris ahead of Trump among Asians by 65%-32%.)
- Harris has seen an 8-point swing among Hispanic people. That's occurred mostly among Hispanic women, a 17-point swing from +2 for Trump in July to +15 for Harris now.
- In the middle-income range, people with household incomes from $50,000 to $99,999 have gone from Trump +7 in July to Harris +8 now, a 15-point shift.
Looking ahead
Some potential voters may be persuadable in the campaign ahead. Among people who don't currently support Trump, 12% say they'd consider voting for him. Among those who don't now support Harris, an almost equal number, 11%, say they'd consider her.
The question is how the candidates attract new supporters while keeping their bases motivated. Appeals on ideological lines seem thin: While 46% see Harris as too liberal, as Trump consistently charges, almost as many, 42%, see him as too conservative.
Another challenging line is Trump's contention that the Democratic Party encouraged the sentiment that led to an attempt on his life. Instead, more Americans blame the Republican Party for the risk of politically motivated violence in this country, 37%, than blame the Democrats, 26%; an additional 25% blame both equally.
Best for Trump is his advantage on the economy and Harris' association with Biden, who labors under a 37%-55% job approval rating, essentially steady the past 15 months. Indeed, Harris' own rating for handling her job as vice president is just 39%-49%. But Trump's retrospective rating also is underwater, 44%-49%. And at this stage, at least, Harris possesses one potentially crucial election commodity: momentum.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Aug. 9-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,336 adults. Partisan divisions are 29%-29%-29%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodology here.
