Harris plans to tackle inflation. Economists say the fight is nearly over.
Vice President Kamala Harris has unveiled a comprehensive agenda focused on cooling inflation, but many economists consider the fight against price increases to be nearly finished.
Inflation stands below 3% for the first time since 2021, U.S. government data earlier this month showed. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at a meeting in September, suggesting that the central bank could retreat from its yearslong battle to slow prices.
Still, consumer prices have climbed more than 20% over the last three years, demoralizing shoppers and straining household budgets. Inflation continues to top lists of voter concerns.
Economists who spoke with ABC News described current price levels as an unfortunate reality that would be nearly impossible to undo, since an outright lowering of prices typically accompanies economic hardship that would require medicine more painful than the ailment.
However, some economists said Harris' proposals could reduce prices for some essential goods, like food, while slowing inflation for items such as housing that are still seeing rapid price increases. Other economists said the measures amount to a solution for a problem that no longer exists, saying the tardy legislative fixes could stunt economic activity.
"We can't unwind prices back to a certain place," Catherine Pakaluk, a professor of economics at the Busch School of Business at Catholic University, told ABC News.
Since overall prices depend on a worldwide tug of war between supply and demand, general cost reductions would demand a significant economic shock to send that balance askew, Pakaluk added.
"All prices are linked together," Pakaluk said. "We all have a sense, 'If only we could reset prices back to where they were three years ago.' But there's no mechanism for that."
In response to ABC News' request for comment, the Harris campaign pointed to a speech that she delivered on Friday.
"When I am elected president, I will make it a top priority to bring down costs and increase economic security for all Americans. As president, I will take on the high costs that matter most to most Americans, like the cost of food," Harris said.
"We all know that prices went up during the pandemic when the supply chains shut down and failed, but our supply chains have now improved and prices are still too high," Harris added.
While acknowledging the difficulty of achieving overall price decreases, some economists noted a potential for price reductions in certain industries, especially the food and grocery sector targeted by Harris' proposals.
Harris points to the market power of large corporations in the grocery industry as a key cause of rapid price increases for food, saying companies use their outsized role to raise prices without fear of a competitor offering a comparable product at a more affordable price. Consumers, the Harris campaign says, are left with nowhere to turn.
"Extreme consolidation in the food industry has led to higher prices that account for a large part of higher grocery bills," the campaign said in a statement on Friday.
Dan Scheitrum, a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, said Harris' plan to crack down on potential anti-competitive practices within the food sector could end up lowering prices for some household staples.
"If price fixing is taking place and it gets addressed, I expect that could undo some of the price increases," Scheitrum said.
While general inflation has moderated, price increases for housing remain highly elevated. Housing prices climbed 5.1% over the year ending in July, soaring at a pace more than twice as fast as the overall inflation rate.
The Harris campaign proposed restoring affordability through a combination of boosting home supply and easing the price pressures for some homebuyers.
Economists who spoke with ABC News largely applauded Harris' efforts to boost the housing supply but offered mixed opinions about a potential $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
"We as economists commonly disagree, but the question of housing supply is something we kind of all agree about," Pakaluk said
On the other hand, a $25,000 subsidy for some homebuyers could allow them to increase their bids and send prices higher, Pakaluk added. "It might have the opposite effect on price than they want," Pakaluk said.
Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland's School of Business, warned against the economic consequences of any attempt to cool prices when they're well on their way to normal levels.
"The price increases that we've seen are very difficult to reverse," Morici told ABC News. "It can't be solved, except with draconian measures."
Other economists indicated that a wide-ranging effort to address inflation could play an important preventative role, safeguarding the economy against a price spike in the event of an emergency, such as another pandemic.
"Even if you're back to being on budget rather than on edge, you're still scared. You've had a really terrible experience from no fault of your own," Isabella Weber, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who studies price controls, told ABC News.
"We have to prepare for the next shock," Weber added.
