The GOP has transitioned from climate denial to climate misrepresentation, experts say
Climate change may not be a top concern for voters for the 2024 presidential election, but that hasn't stopped many Republicans from making misrepresentations about environmental and energy policy – a departure from the previous tactic of majority climate change denial, according to experts on environmental politics who spoke with ABC News.
Debates around energy policy, specifically regarding renewable energy versus fossil fuels, are inherently connected to climate change, in large part because fossil fuels are the largest contributor to climate change, according to the United Nations, accounting for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and almost 90% of carbon dioxide emissions.
In recent years, Republicans have been finding opportunities to condemn green energy, like in February 2021, when a historic freeze caused widespread power outages in Texas, affecting more than 4.5 million people and killing hundreds. At the time, some Republican politicians used the crisis to make false claims about renewable energy, claiming that it was unreliable and the cause of the outages. However, a failure to adequately winterize power sources – particularly the state's natural gas infrastructure, which "represented 58 percent of all generating units experiencing unplanned outages, derates or failures to start" during the outage – is what caused the grid failure, according to a report by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released the following November.
While many Republicans previously denied the science that human-caused emissions exacerbated climate change, experts on environmental politics say the conversation has evolved to focus less on the climate science.
"There's been a real shift in the rhetoric in the past few years," according to Leah Aronowsky, a science historian at the Columbia Climate School, whose research has focused on the history of climate science and climate denialism. "We've seen this shift in rhetoric from denying the reality of climate change to ... problematizing some of the major solutions that are on the table, like wind and solar energy in particular."
The effects of climate change are worsening in every part of the U.S., according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment, a breakdown of the latest in climate science coming from 14 different federal agencies, published in November.
Even so, climate change policies are not among the top of concerns for Republican voters, according to January 2024 polling from the Pew Research Center. While 54% of Americans overall view climate change as a major threat, just 12% of Republicans and those who lean Republican say dealing with climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress.
While denying climate change no longer resonates with some GOP voters as strongly as it once did, the policies that are required to transform the energy economy in the U.S. and around the world to address climate change are still unfavorable to a lot of them – hence the change in messaging, according to David Konisky, a professor of environmental politics at Indiana University's O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
"It's very difficult for Republicans to reconcile any interest in addressing climate change along with messaging and a commitment to maintain reliance on fossil fuels," Konisky told ABC News.
In the end, the widespread opposition to climate policy reform has little to do with disputing climate science and more to do with objections to the monetary cost of addressing it, according to Aseem Prakash, a professor of political science at University of Washington and director of the Center for Environmental Politics.
The Democratic and Republican divide concerning environmental issues began during the Reagan administration in the 1980s, according to Aronowsky. However, the politics of climate have changed a lot in recent years, according to Prakash. For example, Republicans rarely use the term "climate change" anymore – "it's become a trigger word," Prakash said – and instead are framing the subject as "renewable energy" and the problems they claim could arise from policies implementing it.
During a rally in South Carolina in September 2023, former President Donald Trump lambasted offshore wind turbines, claiming that the "windmills are driving [whales] crazy" and are causing an increase in the number of dead whales washing ashore – one of many false claims the former president has made about wind power. During a Republican fundraising dinner in 2019, Trump also claimed that noise from the wind turbines causes cancer, and that they are a "graveyard for birds."
The rhetoric has surfaced in local politics, too, according to the experts. A protest against offshore wind turbines that took place in February 2023 in Point Pleasant Beach, New Jersey, featured several local Republicans, including the mayors of New Jersey's Seaside Park and Point Pleasant Beach, and U.S. Rep. Chris Smith.
Despite the claims, there are "no known links between large whale deaths and ongoing offshore wind activities," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Many Republicans are also talking about oil in new ways, touting domestic oil as cleaner and more pristine than imported oil, though supporting data has been absent. Trump has vowed to boost U.S. oil production if elected to a second term, promising to "drill, baby, drill" to lower the costs of energy. Yet data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in March showed that the United States "produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row" – 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, during the Biden administration, breaking the record set in 2019 of 12.3 million during the Trump administration.
Playing into those politics are gasoline prices, which have become a partial barometer of economic security, Matt Huber, a professor in Syracuse University's geography and environment department, told ABC News. He also noted that that the oil and gas industry has history of funding research that contradicts climate science.
The state of modern American politics includes heavy investment by the fossil fuel industry into the Republican Party and its candidates, Konisky said: "I think that has become almost religious doctrine for many in the Republican Party ... whatever the U.S. energy future looks like, it must rely heavily on fossil fuels."
Donald Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, received $354,937 in funding from the oil and gas industry as of March 2023, according to Open Secrets, a research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. While the vice-presidential hopeful spoke publicly about the country's "climate problem" as recently as 2020, he changed his position in 2023 after he was elected to the Senate, championing fracking and decrying clean energy ever since, Politico reported.
Neither the Republican National Committee nor the Trump/Vance campaign responded to an ABC News request for comment.
Other established Republican senators have received much more funding from oil companies than Vance has. Utah Sen. Mitt Romney has received nearly $8.7 million from the oil and gas industry. Texas Sen. John Cornyn has received $5.1 million, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has received more than $5 million, according to Open Secrets.
Another explanation for the Republican departure from climate denial is that it's becoming an increasingly untenable position to assert that climate change is not real, Lise Van Susteren, a general and forensic psychiatrist who has researched how climate change has affected people's psychological health, told ABC News.
The main reason is that the effects of climate change are now happening in people's backyards, she said. Those effects include extreme wildfires, drought, a higher frequency of major hurricanes, and sea level rise.
