The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column.

Do Americans agree with Republicans' transgender bathroom bans?

The history of bathroom access in the U.S. Capitol is part of a broader story about how political representation in the U.S. has been limited to men until recently — female lawmakers didn't have access to a bathroom near the House chamber until 2011, nearly a century after the first woman served in Congress and four years after the House elected its first female speaker. In January, Delaware Rep.-elect Sarah McBride will also make history in congressional representation, becoming the first openly transgender individual to serve in Congress. But once again, being a trailblazer has come with challenges.

In response to McBride's election, South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace introduced a resolution last week intended to ban transgender women like McBride from using women's bathrooms in the Capitol. House Speaker Mike Johnson initially equivocated on the issue, but under pressure from fellow Republicans like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, he issued a statement that all single-sex facilities in the Capitol and House offices "are reserved for individuals of that biological sex." Mace has since followed up with an even more sweeping proposal, a bill that would apply a transgender bathroom ban to all facilities on federal property.

These kinds of bills are often presented by their proponents as efforts to protect women and girls from sexual predators and preserve women-only spaces. Indeed, Mace has frequently invoked her status as a sexual assault survivor when talking about her bill. Critics have shot back that these arguments from Republicans are hypocritical given that President-elect Donald Trump and some potential members of his administration have been accused of sexual assault, and that policing the use of bathrooms in and of itself would be a violation of privacy. For her part, McBride has been dismissive of Mace's proposal, calling it an "effort to distract from the real issues facing the country."

Transgender rights have emerged as a relatively new culture war battle in the past decade, and have become a hot-button issue in state and local policymaking. Around 2016, states began passing laws restricting transgender rights, with bathroom access being one of the first targets. (Other states, like California, have also passed laws protecting transgender rights in response.) Beyond bathroom bans, half of U.S. states have now restricted or banned transgender youth from playing in school sports on teams consistent with their gender identity, while 26 states have banned gender-affirming health care for children under 18. Similar policies were included in Project 2025, the sweeping, Heritage Foundation-penned proposal for federal policies under the next GOP administration. And this year, Republicans across the country leaned hard into anti-trans talking points on the campaign trail.

That message may have been effective. In a YouGov/Yahoo News survey earlier this month, 56 percent of Americans said they agreed more that "transgender rights have gone too far, infringing on the rights of women and children," compared to 32 percent who said they agreed more that "protecting transgender rights is essential to ensuring equality for all Americans." And in another YouGov poll last week, a plurality of 43 percent of Americans said they'd prefer their congressional representatives to focus more on upholding traditional definitions of gender, versus 30 percent who wanted them to focus more on protecting the rights of transgender people (12 percent said neither, and 15 percent were unsure).

When it comes to specific policies, about half of Americans in that poll (including 78 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of Democrats) seemed to agree with Mace on bathroom bans, telling YouGov they think transgender people should use bathrooms that correspond to their assigned sex at birth, while 34 percent thought they should use bathrooms that align with their current gender identity, or either option.

Slightly more voters also seem to favor bans on sports participation, while opinions are split on banning gender-affirming care for youth. In an October UMass Amherst poll, a plurality of Americans, 47 percent, supported bans on transgender individuals' participation in school sports teams matching their gender identity, compared to just 25 percent who opposed them (the rest were undecided). In a Morning Consult poll of registered voters from Nov. 6-7, 56 percent said they would support and 30 percent said they would oppose banning transgender girls and women from competing in high school and college sports. Meanwhile, 39 percent in the UMass Amherst poll said they would oppose policies to ban gender-affirming care for trans youth, while fewer, 35 percent, said they would support them. And in the Morning Consult poll, more were still in favor of the bans: 46 percent, compared to 39 percent opposed.

But public opinion polling on transgender issues is often muddy, likely reflecting a high level of uncertainty and the fact that these are issues many Americans haven't grappled with until recently. For example, in an October CNN poll, registered voters were asked if they supported federal policies that were more supportive or more restrictive of transgender rights: Their answers were about evenly split between those options, but a plurality, 42 percent, said they "don't have strong feelings either way." That indicates that these issues may not be as pressing or important to many Americans as they are to politicians hoping to fan the culture war flames.

— Monica Potts

Split opinions on Trump's transition so far

Trump's presidential transition plans have already caused a stir in Washington, especially over his controversial administration appointees, several of whom seem to have come via the Fox News green room or carry the same types of legal and ethical baggage the president himself carries. One nominee, former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz — whose nomination to attorney general scuttled the release of a House Ethics Committee review of sex trafficking allegations — already withdrew from consideration in the face of high-profile congressional drama over that report and his seemingly narrow odds of being confirmed.

So, what do Americans think about Trump's transition and appointees? Fifty-four percent of voters surveyed in a Morning Consult poll from Nov. 15-17 and 59 percent in a YouGov/CBS News poll from Nov. 19-22 said they approved of Trump's transition so far. Of course, Americans tend to give newly elected officials grace as they gear up to take office. By comparison, the same two pollsters, respectively, found that 60 percent and 54 percent of Americans approved of Biden's transition at a similar point four years ago.

When it comes to specific officials Trump plans to appoint to his administration, Americans may have an open mind, though many are unfamiliar with or unsure about specific picks. A YouGov/Yahoo News survey taken Nov. 14-18 found that 45 percent of Americans generally approved of Trump's Cabinet nominees so far, while 37 percent disapproved. In the Morning Consult poll, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Trump's choice for ambassador to Israel, had the highest net approval of 13 points among registered voters, though 25 percent said they didn't know or had no opinion about his potential appointment.

Unsurprisingly, Gaetz was the least popular appointee on the list, and the only one with negative net approval (-7 points). The most familiar names were billionaire Elon Musk and 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who each had a 5-point net positive approval rating, with just 15-16 percent of respondents undecided about them. Beyond that, 21 percent to 37 percent of respondents said that they didn't know or weren't sure about each of the other appointees in the survey.

The YouGov/CBS poll found that 53 percent of Americans feel "excited" or "optimistic" about what Trump will do as president, compared to 46 percent who feel "concerned" or "scared." One thing that hasn't changed, though, is deep partisan polarization over Trump himself. In an Echelon Insights poll from Nov. 14-18, favorable versus unfavorable opinions for Trump were tied at 49-49 percent. The same was true of the incoming majority party, with 48 percent saying they had a favorable view of the GOP, compared to 47 percent unfavorable.

Those partisan divides are also evident when it comes to whether Americans think Trump should be allowed to make recess appointments, bypassing Senate approval if any of his appointees meet resistance, though a majority oppose the idea: 54 percent of voters (including 80 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of independents) said they disapprove of recess appointments, compared to 38 percent who approved (including 68 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independents) in a Data for Progress survey from Nov. 15-18. The share of Americans who said the Senate should hold confirmation hearings on Trump's nominees was even higher in the YouGov/CBS poll: around 3 in 4 overall, including more than half of Republicans.

— Monica Potts

More Americans trust the polls than not

After every election cycle in recent memory, it seems, there's been a litany of articles declaring the death of polling and the end of its utility. With polls underestimating Trump for the third cycle in a row, this year is no different. But in fact, the polls had a pretty good year in 2024: The average error in state-level presidential polls was the lowest it's been in at least 25 years. A good year overall for the polls could help bolster public confidence after two cycles of larger-than-average error and constant narratives of polling's demise.

So, how do Americans feel about polls now? It's a bit of a meta answer, but a new poll shows that a plurality of Americans continue to trust polling. Forty-nine percent of respondents in Echelon Insight's latest omnibus poll said that, after the election, they trust polls "a lot" or "somewhat," compared to the 45 percent who said they trust polls "a little" or "not at all." Seven percent said they weren't sure.

— Cooper Burton

Politics won't be on most tables this Thanksgiving

This Thursday is Turkey Day, and according to a new poll, most Americans won't be eating alone: In a recent survey from the Pew Research Center, almost 40 percent of Americans say that they plan to have Thanksgiving at someone else's home this year. But while the TSA is predicting the days around Thanksgiving this year will be the busiest air travel days on record, almost 70 percent of those people also say they don't expect to travel more than an hour away for dinner, and almost 90 percent said that they would be driving rather than flying.

As for what they'll be doing there, the most common activities respondents said they're likely to do on Thanksgiving Day were watching sports (35 percent) and talking about work and school (also 35 percent). And despite the reputation the holiday has for political infighting with relatives, only 26 percent of respondents thought it was likely that they would talk about the presidential election. Republicans were more likely to say so though: 36 percent of Trump voters said they expect to talk about the election, while only 24 percent of Harris voters said so.

— Cooper Burton