The biggest car auctions of 2024 are almost here. Will recession fears damper buyer excitement?
Will a 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider and a 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California be enough to convince wealthy collectors to shell out millions of dollars at California's Monterey Car Week?
As thousands descend on Monterey and Carmel for the world's largest car event, deep-pocketed collectors have pulled back their spending on vintage and classic cars in the past year. Some insiders worry the recent stock market turmoil and murmurs of a potential recession may have convinced interested buyers to wait out the uncertainty.
Five auction houses -- RM Sotheby's, Bonhams, Mecum, Broad Arrow and Gooding & Company -- have assembled more than 500 vintage and rare cars for serious collectors and enthusiasts to bid on starting Thursday. Some cars could fetch $5 million, or even $30 million. At least 150 may soon be worth seven figures.
"We have all seen a tougher market in 2024. The market is normalizing after pent-up demand during COVID," Bryon Madsen, president of RM Sotheby's, told ABC News. "Geo-political events have more influence on the mindsets of buyers [than] any economic indicators. The U.S. election, regardless of who wins, will have an impact."
RM Sotheby's is offering 201 cars this year, nearly the same number as 2023. Twenty cars could sell in the $2 million to $5 million range, Madsen said, noting that a 1995 Ferrari F50 "could do well above its estimate" of $4.5 million to $5 million.
"Investing in cars ... has proven positive over several decades," he said. "Automobiles have long been regarded as alternative assets, as well as an inflation hedge. Cash exists with the buyers in this market."
According to Hagerty Automotive Intelligence, this year's Monterey auctions could rake in a combined $459 million. Last year the auction receipts totaled $403 million, down from $471 million in 2022. McKeel Hagerty, the CEO of Hagerty, an automotive enthusiast brand that also owns Broad Arrow, said once-in-a-lifetime consignments, such as the 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider from Gooding & Co., will draw strong demand and bidding. He said he's optimistic that buyers will spend as usual when the cars roll up to the auction stage.
"The stock market volatility can be correlated with Monterey sales ... sometimes these market conditions result in folks pulling back and waiting while sometimes they encourage enthusiasts to deploy capital in nonpecuniary ways," he told ABC News. "The classic car market is about 10% below its December 2022 peak so it’s already had a healthy reset."
He added, "Why not own, drive and enjoy a classic if stock market returns are going to be flat? We’re just going to have to wait-and-see a few more days."
The rising cost of tickets to the prestigious Pebble Beach Concours and excessive hotel fees in Monterey have done little to dissuade enthusiasts from attending the festivities, according to Bring a Trailer founder Randy Nonnenberg.
"I hear people saying, 'I am coming, I missed it last year,'" he told ABC News. "It's not a financial decision ... people will find a way to come to Pebble. Automakers are using Monterey as the primary place to release cars and that brings a different audience and a different energy. There are way more eyes on Monterey than in the past and bigger visibility leads to bigger auction results."
Sandra Button, chairman of the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance, pointed out that automotive fans will make the pilgrimage to Pebble "even in a year when car values are going down."
She said she tries to make her show "accessible as much as possible" to all enthusiasts and attendance on Sunday could reach 20,000, on par with previous years. Moreover, there will be 215 cars on the show field -- including 50 from outside the country -- a sign, she said, that investors are returning to Pebble in force.
"We sold out on hotel rooms and VIP tickets," she told ABC News. "The collectors are getting younger and there's a generational shift happening. The balance of cars shown is shifting to post war. There is a 125-year span of cars on the field -- that has never happened before."
Eric Minoff, a vice president at Bonhams, said 2024 could still be a banner year for car auctions, even though prices have been flat since January. Last year Bonhams sold a 1967 Ferrari 412P Berlinetta for $30.25 million, the top-selling car that entire week. Minoff said he hopes he can replicate that success this year.
"If the COVID period taught us anything, it's that there's value to get away from everywhere else," he told ABC News. "Cars give you an opportunity to escape everything else that's going on. There are plenty of folks still eager to buy cars."
