AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California on Election Day
WASHINGTON -- While California may be solidly Democratic in presidential contests, a handful of competitive races in the state could determine whether Republicans keep control of the U.S. House. Voters also will cast ballots in a U.S. Senate contest and 10 statewide propositions, in addition to the presidency and the state Legislature.
At the top of the ticket, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris — herself a Californian — will compete against Republican former President Donald Trump and look to win the state’s 54 electoral votes. A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state since 1988.
While the state’s congressional delegation is heavily Democratic, it has about half a dozen competitive House races, and in 2022 a victory in one gave the GOP the House majority. This year’s notable races include two Republican incumbents in the agricultural Central Valley, three other Republicans in Southern California and a Democratic open seat. One of the clearest paths for Democrats to reclaim the House is to pick up several GOP seats in friendly states auch as California and New York.
It will likely take days and possibly weeks to know who won in some districts, due to how slowly California counts votes. The extended process begins with a large, initial reporting of votes, which reflects ballots that were cast in advance of Election Day.
The candidates to fill the Senate seat long held by the late Democrat Dianne Feinstein are Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey. They are running in two separate elections: one for the full six-year term and the other for the remaining weeks of Feinstein's unexpired term. The Democrat appointed to fill Feinstein's vacancy, Laphonza Butler, did not seek to replace her.
Voters also will decide a series of propositions, including one that would toughen punishments for repeated drug and theft charges.
In the state Legislature, half of California’s 40 state Senate seats and all 80 state Assembly seats are up for election. Democrats have lopsided supermajorities in both chambers.
Residents of Oakland will decide whether to recall Mayor Sheng Thao.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in California:
Nov. 5.
11 p.m. ET.
54 awarded to statewide winner.
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (American Independent) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Peace and Freedom).
U.S. Senate: Schiff (D) vs. Garvey (R).
13th Congressional District: Rep. John Duarte (R) vs. Adam Gray (D).
22nd Congressional District: Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D).
27th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) vs. George Whitesides (D).
45th Congressional District: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) vs. Derek Tran (D).
U.S. House, state Senate, state House, Los Angeles District Attorney, San Francisco Mayor, Oakland Mayor Recall.
2020: Biden (D) 63%, Trump (R) 34%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 11 p.m. ET
Registered voters: 22,310,352 (as of Sept. 6, 2024). About 46% Democrats, about 25% Republicans, about 22% no party preference.
Voter turnout in Nov. 2020: 78% of registered voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 87% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 88% of the total vote.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.
First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 11:04 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: about 54% of total votes cast were reported.
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AP writers Hannah Fingerhut and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
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Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
