The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
By now, you're probably well familiar with the handful of swing states that are all-but-certain to decide who wins the race for control of Congress and the White House this November. But many of those states are also hosting highly competitive elections for their state legislatures too.
Democrats currently control 41 state legislative chambers, while Republicans hold majorities in 56.* These races may be lower-profile, but don't mistake their importance; across a myriad of social and economic issues, state legislatures could end up having an even bigger impact on public policy across the country over the next two years than Congress.
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all hosting competitive races for control of at least one of their state legislative chambers this fall. Read on to see the prime pick-up opportunities for each party across the country.
Potential Democratic pickups
Arizona House and Senate
Republicans hold the slimmest possible majority in both the Arizona state House and Senate, but that hasn't stopped them from going full steam ahead with their agenda. Since taking office in 2022, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has issued a record number of vetos, frustrating GOP attempts to pass various legislation that would expand gun rights, relax energy and environmental regulations, and impose new voting restrictions, among many other things.
CNalysis, which specializes in state legislative races, currently rates both chambers as toss-ups. As the GOP holds 16 of 30 seats in the Senate and 31 of 60 in the House, Democrats only need to flip one seat in each chamber to tie things up — or flip two seats in each to gain a majority. Either outcome is within the realm of possibility. If Democrats do manage to capture both chambers, they would have a trifecta in the state for the first time since the 1960s.
Democratic groups have outspent Republicans in the most competitive districts, according to an analysis by the Arizona Mirror, and much of their messaging surrounds the fate of abortion rights in the state. Arizonans will vote this November on a constitutional amendment that would expand abortion rights in the state and supersede a 2002 law banning abortions after 15 weeks. Polls show the amendment passing easily, and Democrats have focused much of their messaging around the issue, hoping to tie their fates to the proposition.
Wisconsin Assembly
Wisconsin's state Assembly is newly competitive this year following court-mandated redistricting that overturned some of the most gerrymandered maps in the country. Democrats are jumping at the opportunity to end the GOP's 14-year reign in the state's lower legislative chamber, but they still have their work cut out for them. CNalysis rates the chamber as Tilt Republican overall, giving Democrats the advantage in 48 seats and Republicans the edge in 51. In the 99-seat body, 50 seats are needed for a majority, and Democrats would have to win at least one seat that would have gone for Trump in 2020 if they want to win a majority, according to The Downballot. That makes the GOP slightly favored to retain power in an election that could still go Democrats' way.
But even if Democrats do prevail, it won't mean too much for policymaking in the state, at least in the short term. Despite redistricting, Republicans look likely to retain firm control of the state Senate (only half of the seats are up for reelection this year) and any new legislation would have to get bipartisan approval to become law.
If Democrats do flip the state Assembly or make gains in the Senate races that are up for election (or both), it would set the stage for an even more explosive fight in 2026. That year will see the rest of the state Senate up for election, as well as the governor's office and the entire state Assembly, giving Democrats their best chance at gaining a trifecta in the Badger State since 2010.
New Hampshire House and Senate
The New Hampshire General Court is one of the largest legislatures anywhere in the world, thanks to a 400-member House of Representatives, which dwarfs the 24-member state Senate. The House is prone to wild swings from election to election due to the minuscule size of most of its districts (the average state House district has only a few thousand people in it, although some multi-member and floterial districts have more). Republicans currently control both chambers, though they hold a very slim majority in the House (197 to 191, with many vacancies), compared with a 14-to-10 edge in the Senate.
The state's moderate Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has held the legislature back from some of its most extreme impulses, including vetoing congressional redistricting plans that would have benefited Republicans (though allowing some lopsided state legislative maps to go into effect). Sununu isn't running for reelection this year, though, and polls show former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, the Republican nominee, slightly favored to keep the seat in GOP hands.
That means Democrats would have to wrest control back of at least one chamber to deprive Republicans of their trifecta in the state. To do so, they'd need to flip six seats in the state House and three seats in the state Senate. CNalysis currently rates the state House as Tilt Democratic and the state Senate as a toss-up, but with such tiny districts and a notoriously fickle electorate, predictions here are especially prone to imprecision.
Alaska House
Most of the states on this list are places that are also presidential battlegrounds. But one of the most interesting state legislative fights this year is happening in a place that hasn't been competitive at the presidential level in decades: the Last Frontier, Alaska.
Alaska currently has one of the most bizarre state legislatures, with the majority in both chambers being made up of members of multiple parties. The state Senate majority is composed of nine Democrats and eight Republicans, while in the state House, a coalition of 20 Republicans, two Democrats and one independent currently controls the chamber.
The coalition in the state Senate is expected to continue, but the contest for the state House is quite close … and quite difficult to predict, since partisan labels aren't sufficient to determine which side each candidate may align with if elected. CNalysis currently rates the state House as a toss-up, though outside groups supporting candidates from the majority coalition have outspent GOP organizers. But a combination of dropouts, retirements and the uniqueness of Alaska's top-four ranked-choice voting system means that sussing out clear favorites is tough.
Calling the state House a "potential Democratic pickup" is perhaps slightly misleading, since we won't know what any potential coalitions might look like until after the election. But if a bipartisan (or tripartisan) coalition does emerge in the state House or Senate again, it would stymie Gov. Mike Dunleavy's hopes of having unified Republican control for at least two years of his governorship; Dunleavy is term-limited in 2026, and the last time the GOP controlled both chambers of the legislature and the governor's office was 2014. Since then, legislative action has revolved mostly around the state budget rather than controversial social or cultural issues.
Potential Republican pickups
Michigan House
In Michigan, Republicans are hoping to reclaim their majority in the state House, two years after they lost it following independent redistricting that replaced GOP-drawn legislative maps. Democrats have the slimmest majority possible — 56 to 54 in the 110-member chamber — and have been raising and spending record sums in their battle to maintain their trifecta. But the map is not on their side: Following adjustments to the House map due to a federal court ruling that said race was improperly used in the initial redistricting process, Trump would have carried 56 seats in 2020, compared to Biden's 54, even as Biden won statewide. That means Democrats are relying on at least a couple of light-red districts to maintain their majority.
Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping that their four-to-one disadvantage in the money race won't be enough to overcome the base partisan lean of these districts. They're also hoping that the raft of policy changes enacted by the state Democratic trifecta over the last two years will turn voters off, running on a message of "government overreach."
CNalysis currently rates the state House a toss-up. If the GOP does recapture control of the chamber, they still wouldn't have free reign of the state government; the state Senate and governor's office, both controlled by Democrats, aren't up for reelection until 2026. But they would stop Democrats from enacting their preferred policies without bipartisan support.
Pennsylvania House
Pennsylvania Democrats are also hoping to defend their tiny, two-year-old state House majority this year. Speaker Joanna McClinton became the first woman to hold the office last year and is fighting to hang on to her one-seat majority in the 203-member chamber. Republicans are hoping that political gravity will be enough to recapture the House, betting that a Trump win in the state would pull the GOP across the line in downballot races as well.
With one of the largest state legislative chambers in the country and only one seat to spare, control of the chamber isn't always certain even when it's not election time. And indeed, CNalysis currently rates the state House as a toss-up, though Democrats are favored in more seats than Republicans.
If the GOP does regain the state House, they would only need to flip the governor's office in 2026 to achieve a trifecta, though that might be the hardest task of all, given Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro's massive popularity in the Keystone State.
Minnesota House and Senate
Minnesota's state Senate isn't as competitive as other chambers mentioned, but Republicans have an outside chance of winning it back just two years after Democrats flipped the chamber. The upper chamber is not up for election again until 2026, but 2024 features a special election for the seat of former state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is running to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips in the state's 3rd Congressional District. If Republicans can flip her seat, they'd gain a working majority.
Morrison's old state Senate district went for Biden by 16 points in 2020, though, so Democrats are the favorites to maintain control there. They're also slightly favored to keep their majority in the state House, which they've controlled since 2019. If Republicans can pull off an upset in either chamber, they'd return the state to divided government after two years of aggressive Democratic policymaking that the GOP dubbed "bonkers."
Footnotes
*Nebraska's state legislature is unicameral and officially nonpartisan, though members affiliated with the Republican Party make up a majority of the body. Both of Alaska's state legislative chambers are controlled by bipartisan coalitions.
