We have our first results from a swing state out west! With 49% of the expected vote reporting in Arizona, it's Harris 50%, Trump 49%. In the Senate race, Democrats are running stronger: Democrat Ruben Gallego has 53% to Republican Kari Lake's 45%. As a reminder, it will take days to count all the ballots in Arizona, although it may be possible to make a projection earlier.

The night is young. With Georgia and North Carolina currently leaning Trump, perhaps the easiest pathway for Harris is the pathway that polls most consistently suggested: winning the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But to get to 270 Electoral College votes, Harris likely needs to pair those three states with one of the two Electoral College votes that come from winning a House district in either Maine's 2nd District or Nebraska's 2nd District. And so far, Harris is up 55% to 44% in Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha, with 70% of the expected vote counted according to the AP.

At 73% of the vote reporting, ABC News has projected Trump will carry Ohio, and its 17 Electoral College votes.

They also project Democrat Greg Landsman will defeat Republican Orlando Sonza in Ohio's 1st Congressional District in central and northeast Cincinnati. Landsman leads 53%-47%, with 82% of the expected vote reporting.

Mississippi and its six Electoral College votes are projected to go to Trump. Like its neighbor Alabama, Mississippi was last won by a Democrat in 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter won the presidency in what was the last gasp of the "Solid South." What was once one of the most reliable Democratic regions of the country is now one of the most reliably Republican regions.

In the last two presidential elections, there have been some major surprises. Surprise was, of course, the theme for 2016, when Trump won a decisive Electoral College victory with the crumbling of the "blue wall" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. With Clinton ahead in the polls that year, this a significant upset. In 2020, Biden's victories in Arizona and Georgia came as a surprise to many observers -- neither had gone to the Democratic presidential candidate since the 1990s.

Is it possible for us to be surprised this year? Most race predictions allowed for a wide range of outcomes, with either candidate winning the popular vote, the Electoral College or one but not the other. The major competitive states still seem like anyone's guess. A Harris victory in North Carolina, where votes are still being counted, might be a slight surprise -- Trump won there in both 2016 and 2020 -- but so far, we haven't seen anything unexpected, and it's not clear that we will.