Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. With wins in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump is in a strong position, though Harris still has a narrow path to victory by sweeping the northern battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
Trump is in a strong position right now
Only two of the seven swing states have been projected at this point — Georgia and North Carolina — but both have gone Trump's way. That's important because it cuts off one of Harris' possible paths to the presidency: the Sun Belt. At this point, she basically has no choice but to win the three northern battleground states (although she could swap Arizona for Wisconsin). And she currently trails in all three: Wisconsin is 51-47% Trump, Pennsylvania is 51-48% Trump and Michigan is 52-46% Trump. She'll probably make up ground as the final ballots are counted in those states, but it's unclear if it will be enough to close the gap. (And even if it is in one state, she'll need to do it in all three.)
Uniform swings are not uncommon
Many presidential elections have seen most states swing in the same direction. Here's a figure showing what fraction of states swung towards the Democrats (or GOP in red) between each pair of elections. Tonight's outcome is not unusual. pic.twitter.com/GhZV21fwwf
— Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776) November 6, 2024
Trump wins back Georgia for the GOP and inches closer to victory
ABC News has projected that Trump will carry Georgia and its 16 electoral votes. In 2020, Georgia was the closest state in the country, going for Biden by just 0.24 points. This time around, with 97 percent of the expected vote reporting, Trump leads by 2.3 points over Harris, 50.7% to 48.4%. The Georgia win puts Trump at 246 electoral votes, with just 24 more needed to win.
Republicans have won 50 Senate seats
With ABC News' projection that Republican businessman Bernie Moreno will win Ohio's Senate seat, a flip for the GOP, the Democrats have lost any real chance at keeping control of the chamber.
While they started the night holding 51 seats (including the independents who caucus with them), Democrats can hope now to win at most 50 — tying the Republicans in an environment where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the next president (and thus, JD Vance will supply Republicans the tie-breaking vote in the Senate).
But things could get even worse for Democrats. Montana's incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester currently trails Republican opponent Tim Sheehy by 20 points in Montana, though just 16 percent of the vote is in. If the votes there go the way they are going in other red-state Senate seats, Tester doesn't stand a chance. And Republicans currently lead the Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If you were waiting up to see who would win the Senate ... go to bed.
Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania with half the vote in
With just about half of the expected vote reporting in Pennsylvania, Trump leads by about 2 points, 50.5% to 48.6%. The good news for Trump is that he's improved on his 2020 position by about 3 points collectively in the 12 counties (of 67) that have reported at least 90% of their expected vote. One notable example is Lackawanna County in the state's northeast, which has reported 95% of its expected vote. Home to Scranton, Biden's birthplace, it's currently going to Harris by 3 points -- but that's a 5-point decline from Biden's 8-point margin edge there in 2020. Harris' hopes probably lie in winning more votes in the Philadelphia blue-collar counties and Philadelphia proper, which have many outstanding votes.