Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. With wins in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump is in a strong position, though Harris still has a narrow path to victory by sweeping the northern battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
Attempts to reform American democracy seem to be going nowhere in 2024
Across the country, ballot measures to change how elections are run in various states seem to be running into hard times. Ballot measures in Colorado, Idaho, Arizona, South Dakota, Oregon and Montana that would either implement a ranked-choice voting system such as the one in Maine or an all-party primary such as in Alaska or California all appear to be on track to fail (only one such measure, in Washington, D.C., has passed so far).
In addition, Ohio's Issue 1, a ballot measure that would reform the way district lines are drawn in the state by implementing a nonpartisan commission to draw lines (rather than leaving the maps in the hands of the legislature), is also projected to fail. Potentially confusing ballot wording may have impacted voters' decision on the measure.
Moreover, eight states featured ballot measures that would restrict local municipalities from allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections, which is permitted in some more liberal cities like San Francisco. Every one of those measures is on track to pass, including one in Missouri that would also ban municipalities in the state from implementing ranked-choice voting for local races.
Polls closing at 1 a.m.
It's now 1 a.m. Eastern, which means all polling places have closed in Alaska. And with that, polls are closed across the nation! Here are our forecasts for the races in the Last Frontier:
Our final forecasts for the 1 a.m. races
The final numbers from 538’s forecasts for races where the last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern
President | |||
---|---|---|---|
chance of winning | |||
Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted median vote margin |
Alaska | 2.9% | 97.1% | -9.8 |
House | |||
chance of winning | |||
Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted median vote margin |
AK-AL | 37.7% | 62.3% | -2.1 |
The wobbly keystone for Harris?
Pennsylvania is the largest of the key swing states in this election, with 19 electoral college votes. With Georgia and North Carolina projected for Trump, Harris has no straightforward back-up for Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes — she cannot make up for them by winning Arizona and Nevada, for example.
In Pennsylvania, her current deficit is 2.8 percentage points, with more than 6.2 million votes in for major-party candidates. To be sure, in 2020, 6.8 million votes were cast for the major-party candidates, but with a relatively uniform shift across the state — sorry, commonwealth — Harris will need a sizable blue shift and some considerable breaks to catch up here in Pennsylvania.
Trump is in a strong position right now
Only two of the seven swing states have been projected at this point — Georgia and North Carolina — but both have gone Trump's way. That's important because it cuts off one of Harris' possible paths to the presidency: the Sun Belt. At this point, she basically has no choice but to win the three northern battleground states (although she could swap Arizona for Wisconsin). And she currently trails in all three: Wisconsin is 51-47% Trump, Pennsylvania is 51-48% Trump and Michigan is 52-46% Trump. She'll probably make up ground as the final ballots are counted in those states, but it's unclear if it will be enough to close the gap. (And even if it is in one state, she'll need to do it in all three.)
Democrats retain control of Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat
ABC News projects that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will win the open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland.
She faced off against Republican Larry Hogan, the former governor in the state. Alsobrooks will replace Sen. Ben Cardin, who retired in May after five decades in politics. With roughly 53% of the expected vote in, Alsobrooks led Hogan 60% to 39%. The Democrat's victory makes her the first Black U.S. senator in Maryland's history.