Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to
538's forecast, both candidates have a roughly equal chance to win.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
The polls are having another good night
The results from the Southeastern states are looking good for Trump, as Nathaniel mentioned earlier, and that seems like a win for polling this cycle. As we saw in 2022, we've had a cacophony of complaints about the polls this year: that they were too Republican-leaning, or that they underestimated Trump twice before and might do it again. But everything so far tonight seems to validate that the death of the polling industry, once again, may have been greatly exaggerated.
Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania with half the vote in
With just about half of the expected vote reporting in Pennsylvania, Trump leads by about 2 points, 50.5% to 48.6%. The good news for Trump is that he's improved on his 2020 position by about 3 points collectively in the 12 counties (of 67) that have reported at least 90% of their expected vote. One notable example is Lackawanna County in the state's northeast, which has reported 95% of its expected vote. Home to Scranton, Biden's birthplace, it's currently going to Harris by 3 points -- but that's a 5-point decline from Biden's 8-point margin edge there in 2020. Harris' hopes probably lie in winning more votes in the Philadelphia blue-collar counties and Philadelphia proper, which have many outstanding votes.
First results in Arizona
We have our first results from a swing state out west! With 49% of the expected vote reporting in Arizona, it's Harris 50%, Trump 49%. In the Senate race, Democrats are running stronger: Democrat Ruben Gallego has 53% to Republican Kari Lake's 45%. As a reminder, it will take days to count all the ballots in Arizona, although it may be possible to make a projection earlier.
Checking in on Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
The night is young. With Georgia and North Carolina currently leaning Trump, perhaps the easiest pathway for Harris is the pathway that polls most consistently suggested: winning the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But to get to 270 Electoral College votes, Harris likely needs to pair those three states with one of the two Electoral College votes that come from winning a House district in either Maine's 2nd District or Nebraska's 2nd District. And so far, Harris is up 55% to 44% in Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha, with 70% of the expected vote counted according to the AP.