Donald Trump relied on the underpinning of his presidential campaign – his strong appeal as a political outsider – to show Ted Cruz the door in their long battle, while Bernie Sanders showed Hillary Clinton that he’s still game for a fight.
Trump overcame a considerable gender gap and a sharply divided GOP electorate, with nearly half of those who didn’t support him in Indiana saying they wouldn’t vote for him in November, either. Still, six in 10 wanted the next president to be someone from “outside the political establishment,” close to its high this year, and Trump won nearly eight in 10 of their votes.
Trump also benefited from greater-than-average support for deporting undocumented immigrants, and – typically – majority interest in a candidate who’ll “bring needed change” or “tells it like it is.”
That said, a large gender gap appeared; in the first race since Trump accused Clinton of playing “the woman card,” he won women by 6 points, but men by 26 points – a Trump-Cruz gender gap second only to that in Michigan nearly a month ago. The typical gap is 9 points; here it was 20.
On the Democratic side, an influx of young, white liberals boosted Sanders over Clinton. Forty-six percent of voters were age 45 or younger, a new high this year (the previous record was 45 percent in Michigan, an unexpected Sanders win); a strong group for Sanders, he won them by 66-34 percent, nearly twice his usual margin among under 45s.
One factor was that whites, another better group for Sanders, accounted for nearly three-quarters of voters, compared with their typical six in 10 in previous races this year. And 68 percent of Democratic voters described themselves as liberals, compared with an average 62 percent this year. Still, regardless of Sanders’ win, 74 percent expected Clinton to be the ultimate nominee, and she led Sanders by 12 points in being seen as better able to beat Trump in November.
The Indiana exit poll results were analyzed for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. Details follow.
Attributes that have driven Trump’s campaign resonated as well in Indiana as elsewhere. More than half of Republican voters said they wanted a candidate who can “bring needed change” (33 percent) or who “tells it like it is” (22 percent), and Trump won two-thirds and nearly nine in 10 of their votes, respectively. Cruz came back with voters focused on a candidate who shares their values – a persistent Trump weakness – winning two-thirds in this group; there just weren’t enough of them.
Trump, more narrowly, also won the relatively few voters who were focused on electability in November, defusing arguments by his critics within the party that he can’t prevail against the ultimate Democratic nominee.
Trump hasn’t won majority support for another of his issues – deporting undocumented immigrants – but it’s nevertheless drawn substantial support among GOP voters. Forty-five percent in Indiana said they favored deportation, compared with 41 percent in previous races on average; nearly two-thirds of them backed Trump.
Another big help for Trump, per usual, were the supporters he’d locked in a long time ago. Forty-six percent of Indiana’s GOP primary voters said they made up their minds more than a month ago, and they voted for Trump over Cruz by more than 2-1.
Looking forward to the convention, two-thirds of Indiana GOP voters said they think that if no candidate has reached a majority of delegates before the convention, the one with the most votes should win the nomination, vs. three in 10 who said the delegates should decide at a contested convention. Support for a contested convention peaked among Cruz and Kasich supporters, but that slipped from previous primaries, from 57 to 50 percent.
Regardless, animosity within Republican ranks was on display again. As in New York and Pennsylvania, a majority of Indiana GOP primary voters – 56 percent – said the campaign has mostly divided the party, vs. four in 10 who said it’s “energized” it. Trump supporters were most likely to say the contest has energized the party, while those supporting Cruz were much more apt to say the party’s been divided.
GOP divisions also were highlighted by the number of non-Trump supporters in Indiana who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump as the nominee – 46 percent, as noted – and the share of non-Cruz supporters who said they would not vote for Trump if he were the nominee, 39 percent. Those were higher alienation rates than on the Democratic side; the key question, with Cruz suspending his campaign after the results were in, was where, in fact, his voters go.
Even while nearly three-quarters of voters in the Indiana Democratic primary said they expected Clinton ultimately to win the party’s presidential nomination, clearly that’s not without a fight.
Demographics, for one thing, were on Sanders’ side. Whites younger than age 45 accounted for a third of Indiana voters, well over their customary 22 percent on average in previous primaries, and they backed him by a vast 74-26 percent, by 48 points rather than the usual 37 points.
Meanwhile, nonwhites age 45 and older – a huge group for Clinton – accounted for fewer voters than typical, 13 percent, compared with 22 percent on average. Clinton won them by 79-21 percent, her usual margin.
That said, Sanders’ performance was not built on whites alone. As in some other Midwestern states, he ran competitively with Clinton among nonwhites younger than 45; 51-49 percent, Sanders-Clinton.
As noted, 68 percent of Democratic voters described themselves as liberals; there’ve been more in just a handful of states this cycle. And the trend within Indiana itself is remarkable: In 2008, liberals accounted for 39 percent of Democratic primary voters, 29 points fewer than their numbers today.
Sanders did especially well among “very” liberal voters – 28 percent in Indiana this year (vs. 14 percent in 2008); he won them by 59-41 percent, compared with 50-50 in earlier contests this year. It was one of his best showings among strong liberals to date, surpassed only in five states to date.
Other results followed these. Six in 10 voters in Indiana said the most important candidate trait was someone who’s honest and trustworthy or who cares about people like them (three in 10 apiece); large majorities in both groups backed Sanders – 80 and 69 percent, respectively. Clinton came back with a very large majority of those focused on experience or electability.
Results on the question of who’s the more inspiring candidate also were telling: Fifty-five percent said it was Sanders, vs. 43 percent who picked Clinton. Sanders’ result was second to his best on this question, 59 percent in Wisconsin, in the six states where it’s been asked.
Clinton’s main weakness has been questions about her honesty and this remained the case in Indiana. Just 56 percent saw her as honest and trustworthy – tying the low in the states in which it’s been asked, and 27 points fewer than the number who said the same about Sanders.
Clinton had some pushback. More than three-quarters saw her policies as realistic, vs. just shy of two-thirds for Sanders – but that was better for Sanders than usual, 57 percent in the nine states where the question’s been asked before.
On issues, Sanders continued to benefit from a sense that Wall Street hurts rather than helps the U.S. economy (64 percent said so) and from antipathy to free trade – 46 percent said it costs jobs, vs. 39 percent who said it creates them.
Half of Indiana voters said the next president should continue Obama’s policies, while 35 percent preferred a more liberal direction. The pro-Obama group was a better one for Clinton – but again, those seeking more liberal policies were more numerous than average in Indiana. They’ve been surpassed in just three states.
Finally, while the Democrats have had their squabbles, exit poll results have indicated far less internal damage compared with the GOP contest. Seventy-three percent of Democratic voters in Indiana said the primaries have energized the party as opposed to dividing it, with no difference between Clinton and Sanders supporters on the issue. About two in 10 Clinton voters said they wouldn’t vote for Sanders in November, and a third of Sanders voters said that about Clinton.