The Oprah Effect. The Colbert Bump. The Swift Surge?
On Tuesday night, soon after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ended, Taylor Swift told her 280 million Instagram followers that she would be casting her vote for Harris and Tim Walz. The endorsement comes after "a year of paranoid speculation" as Vox.com termed it, as fans and foes alike publicly hunted for clues to determine whether the pop superstar planned to weigh in. Speculation reached a fever pitch when President Joe Biden stepped aside in July and a wave of celebrity endorsements came in for Harris, including from many other musical artists.
A YouGov poll conducted Wednesday found that more than 53 percent of Americans, including 31 percent of Republicans, think Swift's endorsement will help Harris, while only 4 percent think it will hurt her. But in an increasingly partisan era (no pun intended), it can feel like nothing moves the needle.
In making political endorsements, celebrities and influencers risk alienating some fans — likely one reason Swift's endorsement diplomatically encouraged followers to do their own research on the election. But Swift has made political endorsements in the past, all of which have been for Democrats, so this isn't wholly new territory for her. Plus, most of her fans likely lean Democratic already. A survey by Change Research in February of this year found 62 percent of Democrats, but just 17 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of independents, had a favorable view of Swift. Of "moveable" voters (those who were undecided or had reservations about Biden) it was only 37 percent.
And tellingly, the poll found that registered voters who had a favorable opinion of Swift picked Biden over Trump in a theoretical head-to-head matchup by 48 points, 69 percent to 21 percent. That represented a massive 55-point difference between Swift fans and all registered voters, who preferred Trump by a 7-point margin in that same survey.
Still, Swift's reach has the potential to engage the less politically attentive, or reawaken people who are avoiding political news and politics more generally. So, what can we glean from Swift's endorsement? Could it actually influence the 2024 election?
Plenty of evidence suggests that in elections, endorsements do matter. Psychologically, endorsements serve as information shortcuts, which help voters make decisions more easily by relying on the perceived credibility and values of the endorser rather than conducting in-depth research on policies or candidates themselves. And while the most coveted endorsements typically come from political figures, an ever-growing distrust in political institutions means endorsements from other public figures — like celebrities or influencers — could be more consequential than ever before.
There's some precedent for this: In a political version of the "Oprah Effect," TV personality Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of then-candidate Barack Obama may have earned him an estimated 1 million additional votes in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, according to one study. Winfrey's backing of Obama was her first political endorsement ever, and her access to an audience of loyal, but potentially less politically engaged, viewers who were mostly women is likely what made her endorsement so consequential.
For her part, Swift has one of the largest audiences in the world, and her political endorsement could move the needle by drawing in those who may not otherwise be following politics, or what Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan of the University of Michigan characterize as the deliberately uninvolved. Her endorsement has the potential to particularly galvanize younger Americans, a bloc with historically low voter turnout, to register and show up to vote.
Because of this, the fact that Swift's audience is already Democratic-leaning doesn't mean her endorsement won't matter — it could be a reason it does matter. Turning out new and low-propensity voters has been a major strategy for Trump since his 2016 campaign, but celebrities like Swift have the potential to provide a boost among a bloc of unlikely voters who are much more inclined to vote for Democrats.
Swift's endorsement seemed tailored to do this by urging fans to register to vote, and by sharing her reasons for supporting the Harris-Walz ticket, including by mentioning reproductive rights — an issue that's disproportionately important among younger Americans and women, and among Swift fans, 39 percent of whom listed it as one of the top three issues deciding their vote in the February Change Research poll. It's also an area that Democrats have a huge advantage on, and candidates' focus on issues important to young voters could be key to motivating turnout in an election where their votes could matter more than ever.
Although it's hard to measure their direct effects, experts say endorsements like Swift's can be consequential by reaching new or less politically engaged voters and helping create a sense of social responsibility among them. "Among the people who are not deeply political, who would generally turn off the news and put on some music, musicians and celebrities can be effective public opinion leaders," said Jessica Feezell, an associate professor of political science at University of New Mexico who studies music and politics. "If Taylor Swift ... is signaling that it's good to be registered to vote, and it's good to be engaged in politics, and maybe that it's good to vote for Harris over Trump, I would expect that to matter for people who are new voters or politically ambivalent."
While Swift's first political endorsement — of Phil Bredesen, the Democratic nominee in the 2018 Tennessee Senate race — was likely negligible in the deep-red state, she does have a record of driving up voter registration by weighing in. In 2023, there was a surge of registrants at Vote.org, a nonpartisan voter registration site, after she encouraged her fans to register to vote. It was a similar story this week: In the 24 hours that Swift’s Instagram story was live, over 400,000 people visited vote.gov from the URL she shared.
For millions of Americans, "politics" is something they avoid. For example, according to a 2023 Pew survey, 65 percent of American adults say they feel "exhausted" when they think about politics. But endorsements from celebrities and influencers may force some of these disinterested Americans to pay attention, or even take action. For one, growing skepticism of mainstream political news sources has led audiences to seek alternative sources of information that they perceive as more authentic, relatable and trustworthy. This is especially true of younger Americans, many of whom aren't necessarily seeking out political news, but are incidentally watching the election play out mostly online.
As seen by the whirlwind of speculation about Swift's potential endorsement, celebrities face new pressures to make political endorsements. Swift's endorsement was driven in part by a uniquely modern phenomenon: She explicitly mentioned that AI-generated images of her endorsing Trump, which had been shared by Trump himself, were what prompted her to make a statement. And at a time when social media has intensified parasocial relationships, or the one-sided emotional connections that individuals form with media figures, some fans even expect their idols to publicly take a stand on political issues and align their values with those of the majority of their audience.
Other fans aren't waiting for endorsements to take action, though. "Swifties for Kamala" is a fan-led group that led virtual meetings to fundraise for Harris in the weeks after Biden stepped aside. Though they were quick to note that they were not affiliated with the artist, the group served as a place to build community among fans for a cause they care about and offered an example of how grassroots organizing can quickly take hold on social media: The group has since raised over $150,000 for the Harris campaign.
All told, celebrities and influencers find themselves in a situation where there is more pressure to take political positions — from their fans, political figures and the changing nature of our media landscape. Swift's endorsement has already fed into that cycle too. In the last two days, celebrities like WNBA player Caitlin Clark and NFL quarterback Patrick Mahomes have encouraged Americans to vote while not endorsing any candidate themselves, as they faced an influx of questions from media and the public — something that Swift understands all too well.