Rubio and Waltz picks put China back at the center of US foreign policy

President-elect Donald Trump's expected choice of Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Mike Waltz as his secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively, indicates China is going to be at the center of U.S. foreign policy, deepening U.S.-China tensions.

Rubio and Waltz are both staunch China hawks. In fact, Rubio was sanctioned twice by Beijing in 2020 and may still be banned from entering China.

Naming Rubio and Waltz is a "strong sign that Trump's foreign policy priority will focus on China above all else," said Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. Though there will be a near-term focus on finding a resolution to the wars overseas, "over the next four years, China -- by far and away -- will be the major focus," he said.

That tracks with what Waltz has said himself. Earlier this month, he co-wrote in The Economist that the U.S. should "urgently" bring the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to an end so the U.S. can "finally focus strategy attention where it should be: countering the greater the threat from the Chinese Communist Party."

Rubio has called China the "threat that will define this century" and backed a bill to prevent the import of goods made by China's Uyghur minority. Waltz, who has said the U.S. is in a "cold war" with China, called for the U.S. to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Trump has vowed to slap 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. He'll likely act on tariffs early in his administration, experts say, as an easy win that he can act on unilaterally to show he's delivering a key campaign promise. It will be highly disruptive to U.S.-China relations and U.S. businesses, so experts say there will likely be a lot of lobbying from Trump's allies in the business world to narrow the tariffs to a few key sectors.

In addition to tariffs, the U.S. has a "huge toolkit for economic warfare" that the Trump administration could use, according to Thomas, including more sanctions on Chinese companies and expanding export controls to more industries.

But billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk could be a moderating voice for a softer approach to China amid all of this. Musk has deep business interests in China and could become a key middleman for dialogue between Trump and China's Xi Jinping.

Telsa depends on China for production and as a key consumer market. Musk is a household name in China and gets the red-carpet treatment from Chinese officials when he visits.

Musk could become the "principal, go-between interlocutor" between Xi and Trump, according to Ian Bremmer, the founder of Eurasia Group. "I think Elon would certainly be interested in it."

The Chinese government "certainly will" reach out to Musk to see how they can use him to influence Trump, Bremmer added.

About half of all Tesla EVs are made in China, and Musk has received perks from the Chinese government that are rarely given to foreign players. Musk has even parroted Beijing's views on geopolitical issues, saying Taiwan is an "integral part of China."

Regardless, Beijing is gearing up for a volatile four years under Trump. Beijing is trying to revive a struggling economy, and the uncertainty of a Trump presidency is "deeply worrying," according to Bremmer. "They will want the relationship to be more constructive in this environment because this is a bad time for them to have a crisis."