Harris' relentless debate strategy takes Trump off talking points: ANALYSIS

Before Tuesday night's debate, Republicans were virtually unanimous: if former President Donald Trump stuck to policy contrasts, he'd win the faceoff with Vice President Kamala Harris.

"He needs to hold her accountable to what she truly believes and what she's done when she was given more power in a bigger position," South Dakota GOP Gov. Kristi Noem told ABC News shortly before the debate.

Still, she added, "his personality always shines through."

She was right.

In a fiery debate that marked the first time Harris and Trump had ever met face-to-face, the vice president repeatedly laid into her opponent, goading him on everything from his 2020 loss to his crowd sizes to his record, which she dubbed a "mess."

And instead of talking about immigration and inflation -- top issues that polls suggest he is more trusted on -- he relitigated false claims that he won the 2020 race, repeated conspiracy theories about Haitian migrants eating neighbors' pets and hammered President Joe Biden, whom he's no longer running against.

"Trump was all over the place. He had a few good moments, but Kamala baited him and he took it every time. Felt like he had two steps forward then three steps backwards," one Republican strategist said. "Not a massive earthquake, but Kamala moved forward, and Trump maybe lost a bit."

Harris opened the debate sounding apprehensive but quickly found her groove, and her playbook became clear: she would not relent in her attacks against Trump.

First, she went after him on policy.

"Let's talk about what Donald Trump left us. Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the great depression. Donald Trump left us the worst public health epidemic in a century. Donald Trump left us the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War. And what we have done is clean up Donald Trump's mess," she said.

Then, she went for the jugular.

"People start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom," she said.

"Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people," she added later. "Clearly, he's having a very difficult time processing that."

And dictators, she said, "can manipulate you with flattery and favors."

Trump's answers were meandering at first, veering between topics but still punching Harris over things like immigration and student loan debt. But ultimately, instead of landing blows on the border and the economy, he was insistent that he was being sarcastic in recent remarks conceding his 2020 loss and elevating conspiracy theories that were debunked about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, that even his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, backtracked on before the debate.

"Trump started strong but couldn't help taking the bait on things he should have let pass by," said a second GOP strategist. "With that draw, the scale likely tips to the new entry: Harris."

He finished the debate with a closing statement hammering Harris for not accomplishing any of her policies during her 3.5 years in office as vice president, though even for allies who thought he performed well, that came too late.

"He did what he needed to do. She really had to convince people she was the agent of change, and I think she came across very scripted," said Sean Spicer, Trump's first White House press secretary. "Trump's comment about her being there for 3.5 years was great but it should have come earlier."

Throughout the debate, Harris weaved in shoutouts to some of her recently released policy proposals, including boosted assistance for first-time home buyers or parents with newborns. However, she spent much of her time hammering Trump, which some Republicans spun as a win, particularly given how cemented many voters' perceptions of the former president already are.

"She's landing the hits on him but that's not enough. She needed to actually give people that already don't like him reason to vote for her, and she failed to do it. He missed opportunities to hurt her. But it was much lower stakes for him," one former senior Trump administration official said toward the end of the debate.

"We thought it was our best debate ever," Trump himself later boasted during a surprise visit to the debate spin room.

Still, early signs did not bode well for the former president.

A snap poll taken by CNN of debate watchers found that about 63% thought Harris won the clash, compared with 37% for Trump. In the same kind of poll that was taken after Trump's June debate with Biden -- which featured such a faulty performance from the president that he had to end his campaign -- 67% thought Trump won.

The debate comes at a crucial time, after a wave of momentum for Harris jolted Democrats back into a razor-thin race. With that momentum largely stalled before Tuesday, Democrats were eager for an opportunity for another burst.

"She is conducting a master class," Democratic strategist Karen Finney said toward the end of the debate. "His lack of discipline spoke volumes about his poor character."

"Trump was his unhinged self, but she was presidential," added a source familiar with the Harris campaign's thinking. "It is hard to move the needle much in this race, but I suspect that it will."

Still, performing well at a debate is one thing; altering a race is another.

This year's presidential election has certainly been a roller coaster, featuring a historic debate in June, an assassination attempt on Trump in July and an unprecedented scramble to push Biden aside and then elevate a replacement to him on Democrats' ticket.

But polls over recent years show only a dwindling sliver of undecided voters remain, with each party going into November with high floors of support from voters who are expected to put their team jersey on, regardless of their enthusiasm for their party's nominee.

And in a news cycle that has already rendered something as historic as an assassination attempt old news, it's unclear how large a Sept. 10 debate will loom in voters' minds on Nov. 5.

"Harris didn't bomb, and thus passed this test. The country is so polarized and divided I am not sure there will be much impact," said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard. "He took the bait too often, too much wasted time responding instead of prosecuting the case against her. But nothing that will dissuade his current supporters."

For Harris' campaign, though, the strategy appears the same, with more baiting to come.

"Vice President Harris is ready for a second debate," Harris campaign co-chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said in a statement after the debate. "Is Donald Trump?"