The U.S. is experiencing the driest fall on record, which could potentially impact the quality of upcoming autumn harvests, experts told ABC News.
About 77% of the mainland U.S. is abnormally dry, and almost half of the country is experiencing drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The spatial pattern of the dry conditions varies widely across the continent, Josue Medellin-Azuara, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California Merced, told ABC News.
MORE: Florida's farmlands, iconic orange groves recovering following back-to-back hurricanesImprovement in the drought is not expected for most of the South, the Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest due to expected La Nina conditions this winter that would further reinforce the dryness, according to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
However, a lot of the crops in these regions that harvest in the fall had good growing conditions throughout the summer and are in the process of being harvested, meaning overall output should not be heavily impacted, Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former chief economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, told ABC News.
Some summer crops are even expected to see record outputs, according to the latest report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Record yields for both corn and soybean -- at 183.8 bushels per acre and 53.1 bushels per acre, respectively -- are expected.
The drought conditions are a relatively recent development. As of June 2024, drought coverage in the U.S. stood at a four-year low, according to the USDA, citing U.S. Drought Monitor statistics.
MORE: More than half of water from Colorado River used for agriculture industry, report findsDrought conditions in the continental U.S. increased from 12% in June 2024 to 45% in October 2024, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. July was "good," but the dryness really started to ramp up in August, Glauber said.
The dryness could impact the quality of many fall harvest crops, such as the test weights of the yields, Glauber said. The sudden turn toward dry weather has promoted a rapid pace of summer crop maturation and harvesting, according to a statement provided to ABC News by the USDA. By Oct. 20, more than 81% of the U.S. soybeans and 65% of the corn had already been harvested, compared to the respective five-year averages of 67% and 52%.
"Anytime you stress a plant, you risk plant problems that could develop," Glauber said.
A fall drought can also encourage a ripple effect throughout the following seasons, Precious Tshabalala, an economist with the Food & Environment program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told ABC News.
MORE: Food prices could increase further due to climate change's effect on inflation around the world: StudyThe USDA Economic Research Services is predicting a less than 2% rise in food prices in the near future, but if the food in question is used to feed livestock, a domino effect of increasing prices -- for dairy and meat -- could occur, she said,
"Any disruptions in the water supply during the critical phases harvesting or even the growing season could translate to lower yields," Tshabalala said.
In addition, there has been some recent degradation of rangeland and pastures, as well as a lack of soil moisture for the establishment of fall-sown crops, including winter wheat, according to the USDA. By Oct. 20, nearly half (48%) of the U.S. rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition.
MORE: North America experienced an unprecedented 'hot drought' in the last century, new research showsPlaces like California that have high variability in precipitation are used to these conditions, Medellin-Azuara said. They typically rely on the melting of the winter snowpack, which then flows into rivers that are irrigated into agricultural fields.
"At this point, we're not as affected by drought," he said. "We produce most of the crops in the summer."
Despite the impacts of drought, food prices are not expected to be affected by much, Glauber said, adding that it is usually the global market -- such as the outbreak of the war in Ukraine's impact on wheat production -- that causes prices to rise drastically.
"The price of the typical groceries in the food store -- only 25% of that is farm value," Glauber said. "The rest is post-farm, so transportation costs and distribution costs, and even things like wage rates, which have all gone up since the pandemic."
MORE: How the agriculture industry must adapt to megadrought in the West: ExpertsTshabalala warned that as global warming worsens, so will the variability of precipitation and the impact on farmers and food prices.
"These catastrophic weather events will lead to temperature and rain variations, increasing the risk for the farmer and in turn, affecting food availability and ultimately food prices," she said. "We've seen this in the past before, so the trend is still the same, if not getting worse."
ABC News' Max Golembo contributed to this report.