More than anything else, President-elect Donald Trump appears to have won the 2024 presidential election because of a uniform swing against the Democratic Party. According to our analysis of final vote totals in almost every county, about 53 percent of the variation in the change in Democratic support from 2020 to 2024 can be explained by the country's overall rightward swing. The simplest story is this: Democrats lost support by about the same amount, pretty much everywhere.
But a much richer story is hiding under the surface. In comparing this year's results to those of cycles past, we found three big stories that help explain how Democrats lost this year. Two of these are older stories — the continued erosion of the party's support among working-class and nonwhite voters. One is newer: the party's post-2020 struggles in cities and traditional Democratic strongholds. All three are flashing red lights for Democrats about their future electoral performance. Click here to see our new interactive illustrating these trends.