November 6, 2024

2024 election exit poll analysis: Abortion

WATCH: What’s next for key issues like the economy, abortion

The battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada were among 10 states with abortion on the ballot Tuesday.

Some strategists hypothesized that this would boost turnout among the majority of voters who support legal abortion, aiding Democratic candidates in the process.

Not so fast: Attitudes on abortion were not as one-sided as it may have seemed, according to an analysis of exit polls.

Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images, FILE
Sign in favor of proposition 139, the right to abortion initiative, are displayed at the entrance room of the Tucson HQ of Arizona List, an association made to empower and elect progressive pro-choice Democratic women leaders, in Tucson, Ariz., Oct. 16, 2024.

Donald Trump's approach, focusing on states' rights, appeared to resonate with voters who didn't view abortion access as incompatible with a Trump presidency. In Arizona, 23% who voted "yes" on the state's initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution also voted for Trump. In Nevada, where another abortion-rights measure was approved, 25% of "yes" voters likewise went for Trump.

MORE: Florida's pro-abortion ballot initiative projected to fail in first since Roe was overturned

This followed at the national level. Among the two-thirds of voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 28% voted for Trump; that included 30% in Arizona, 32% in Nevada and 36% in Florida.

Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images
A table with literature calling for a YES vote on proposition 139, the right to abortion initiative, is displayed by members of Arizona List, an association made to empower and elect progressive pro-choice Democratic women leaders, at the entrance to the Murphy-Wilmot Library in Tucson, Ariz., Oct. 16, 2024.

Supporters of legal abortion still broke strongly for Harris. But partisan elasticity on the issue did not cut both ways. As Harris made abortion access a central focus of her campaign, she won only 9% of voters who said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

In Arizona, as an example, anti-abortion voters made up 31% of the electorate -- and backed Trump by 95-5%.