With Florida's Senate race off the table for Democrats, the outcome of Ohio's Senate race is now even likelier to determine control of the Senate. As of 8:40 p.m. Eastern, with 44% of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Bernie Moreno by about 50,000 votes or 2% of the current vote count. Right now, there's a lot of outstanding ballots left in the big cities -- Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati especially. But there's a lot of rural votes in Ohio, potentially enough to flip Brown's current tenuous lead.

With 21% of the expected vote reporting in New Hampshire, Harris is at 54% and Trump at 45%. However, in the competitive governors' race, Republican Kelly Ayotte is at 51% and Democrat Joyce Craig is at 48%. Craig was probably hoping that Harris' likely win in New Hampshire would pull her over the finish line, but it looks like Granite Staters are differentiating between the two Republicans at the top of the ticket.

After struggling to decide whether to run again, Rep. Victoria Spartz is leading her Democratic challenger in Indiana's 5th Congressional District, 54% to 41%, with 56% of the expected vote reporting. It's a race we're keeping an eye on: Spartz bested eight challengers in her primary to regain the nomination. She's the only Ukrainian American to serve in Congress, and while she's supported Ukraine's war against Russia's invasion she voted against a military aid bill in April, calling for more oversight of the money the U.S. sends to the country.

Despite a recent projection in the gubernatorial race for Democrat Josh Stein, the presidential race in North Carolina remains too close to project. According to 538's final forecast, Trump is slightly favored to win -- 59 out of 100 simulations -- but Democrats have long eyed the state as a battleground as Republicans' margins have shrunk in recent years. In 2016, for instance, Trump won the state by about 3 percentage points compared with his 1-point win in 2020. The last time the Tar Heel State voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly defeated John McCain. Four counties in the state are fully reporting: Graham, Pender, Polk and Swain. In three of the four, Trump increased his vote share from the 2020 race. But in one of the counties -- Pender -- Trump's support decreased slightly, though he still has a significant edge over Harris here.

Results are starting to trickle in from the first few counties in Indiana and Kentucky! However, they're incomplete, and it's far too early to draw any conclusions from them. My general rule of thumb is to wait until at least 10% of the expected vote is reporting before taking those numbers seriously.