Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. With wins in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump is in a strong position, though Harris still has a narrow path to victory by sweeping the northern battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
Polls closing at 1 a.m.
It's now 1 a.m. Eastern, which means all polling places have closed in Alaska. And with that, polls are closed across the nation! Here are our forecasts for the races in the Last Frontier:
Our final forecasts for the 1 a.m. races
The final numbers from 538’s forecasts for races where the last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern
President | |||
---|---|---|---|
chance of winning | |||
Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted median vote margin |
Alaska | 2.9% | 97.1% | -9.8 |
House | |||
chance of winning | |||
Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted median vote margin |
AK-AL | 37.7% | 62.3% | -2.1 |
The wobbly keystone for Harris?
Pennsylvania is the largest of the key swing states in this election, with 19 electoral college votes. With Georgia and North Carolina projected for Trump, Harris has no straightforward back-up for Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes — she cannot make up for them by winning Arizona and Nevada, for example.
In Pennsylvania, her current deficit is 2.8 percentage points, with more than 6.2 million votes in for major-party candidates. To be sure, in 2020, 6.8 million votes were cast for the major-party candidates, but with a relatively uniform shift across the state — sorry, commonwealth — Harris will need a sizable blue shift and some considerable breaks to catch up here in Pennsylvania.
Trump is in a strong position right now
Only two of the seven swing states have been projected at this point — Georgia and North Carolina — but both have gone Trump's way. That's important because it cuts off one of Harris' possible paths to the presidency: the Sun Belt. At this point, she basically has no choice but to win the three northern battleground states (although she could swap Arizona for Wisconsin). And she currently trails in all three: Wisconsin is 51-47% Trump, Pennsylvania is 51-48% Trump and Michigan is 52-46% Trump. She'll probably make up ground as the final ballots are counted in those states, but it's unclear if it will be enough to close the gap. (And even if it is in one state, she'll need to do it in all three.)
Uniform swings are not uncommon
Many presidential elections have seen most states swing in the same direction. Here's a figure showing what fraction of states swung towards the Democrats (or GOP in red) between each pair of elections. Tonight's outcome is not unusual. pic.twitter.com/GhZV21fwwf
— Dan Hopkins (@dhopkins1776) November 6, 2024
Mississippi projected to go to Trump
Mississippi and its six Electoral College votes are projected to go to Trump. Like its neighbor Alabama, Mississippi was last won by a Democrat in 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter won the presidency in what was the last gasp of the "Solid South." What was once one of the most reliable Democratic regions of the country is now one of the most reliably Republican regions.