ABC News projects that Missouri's Amendment 3, which would legalize abortion in the state up until fetal viability, will pass narrowly. Missouri joins Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Nevada and New York in voting tonight to expand or guarantee abortion rights in their respective states. Though we’re still waiting for projections for the abortion related measures in Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota, it’s safe to say that voters have made their voices heard in the post-Roe era.

Many roads to the White House for Harris ran through Pennsylvania, but with ABC News projecting a win for Trump, Harris has run out of options. I’ll leave the more in-depth analysis of what went wrong with the campaign to the experts, but at a basic level, she fell short of her benchmarks across much of the state and suffered from deep-blue Philadelphia County making up a smaller portion of the statewide vote than in 2020.

ABC News projects that Trump will win Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, which puts him on course to win at least 270 electoral votes and the presidency. He now has 266 electoral votes, and while ABC News has not yet projected the three electoral votes in Alaska or one vote in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, his edge so far tonight suggests that he is more than likely to. Additionally, he leads by varying margins in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Trump's impending victory is historic for a multitude of reasons. He is just the second former president to lose reelection and then return four years later to win back the White House (Democrat Grover Cleveland was the first during the period from 1884 to 1892). He also won despite various personal legal troubles that were unprecedented for a major-party presidential contender. It remains to be seen if Trump will return to office with his party in full control of government: ABC News has projected the Senate will go Republican, but the House remains up in the air at this late (or especially early) hour.

Democrats are on their way to breaking Republicans’ supermajority in the North Carolina state House, meaning that the legislature won’t be able to override the Democratic governor’s vetoes. Prior to tonight, Republicans occupied at least 60% of North Carolina’s legislative seats. This gave the party the power to override gubernatorial vetoes if they voted as a bloc, and was massively important for Republicans as the state’s outgoing governor, Roy Cooper, is a Democrat. After tonight, Republicans will still represent the majority of lawmakers in the state’s legislature — but the party is likely to lose its supermajority. That’s because, in House District 24, Democrat Dante Pittman is leading incumbent Republican Rep. Ken Fontenot. If that trend continues then, come January, Republicans will no longer have the power to override gubernatorial vetoes; this could force the party to negotiate with Governor-elect Josh Stein in order to pass their priorities.

As election results are tabulated, the results we have so far for Texas's 28th District suggest that Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar might win reelection — but only barely so. With 80% of the vote in, Cuellar only leads his challenger, Republican Jay Furman, by four percentage points.

If this trend continues, it would represent a marked shift to the right for the district, which stretches from San Antonio to the southernmost point of the Texas-Mexico border. In 2022, Cuellar sailed to reelection by 14 points. At the time, his overwhelming win was viewed as somewhat surprising since Cuellar's home and office were raided by the FBI in the week's before the 2022 primary election. Cuellar has long denied any wrongdoing.

It seems like Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, might be able to hold onto his seat tonight. But he'll have to work for it. And — who knows — maybe winning by a narrow margin tonight will convince Cuellar to fall in line with his party more. Though he's a relatively reliable vote for the House Democratic Caucus, he's distanced himself from his more-liberal colleagues on a number of issues, including abortion. Notably, Cuellar is the only Democrat in the chamber who is anti-abortion. While his colleagues have called for federal protections for abortion, Cuellar has said that abortion-related policies should be left up to the states.

It's unclear how much of Cuellar's current vote margin is due to a rightward shift among Texas's voters who live along the state's southern border. It's also possible that Cuellar is suffering in the polls due to his own personal issues. He was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering.